A recent study finds as many as 1.6 to 2.6 crore people in Bangladesh will be the victim of internal migration between 2011 and 2050 due to adverse impact of the climate change.
Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU) of Dhaka University and Sussex Centre for Migration Research (SCMR) of Sussex University jointly conducted the study.
The findings of the study were disclosed at a workshop on “Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh: Migration, the Missing Link” at Senate Bhaban of the Dhaka University yesterday.
The RMMRU made the prediction based on historical analysis of upazila level census data of 2001 and 2011 and prediction of global climate models and the World Bank Studies of 2010 and 2011.
According to the findings, 20 lakh to 50 lakh people will migrate due to riverbank erosion, 30 lakh to 60 lakh due to inland flooding and 50 lakh to 70 lakh due to coastal storm surges.
A survey was conducted on 1500 migrants and non-migrant households in climatic stressed areas of Bangladesh including Chapainawabganj, Satkhira and Munshiganj.
Only 10% of the respondents said that they migrated due to climatic stresses.
A total of 27% responded that they moved for lack of work and availability of work in destination areas.
While 34% moved to earn an income and live a better life and 9% attributed poverty as their reason for migration. Others said marriage and study as their major reasons for migration.
The findings suggest rethinking of policy framework that treats migration as failure of adaptation.
The study says adaptation programmes in Bangladesh should not set its goals to prevent migration as it hinders people’s choice of mobility.
While respecting the right of the affected people to stay in places of origin policies should also respect the desire of those who choose to migrate.
Criticising the government policies, the RMMRU founding Chair Dr Tasneem Siddiqui said internal migration in the policies has been depicted as a negative impact of climate change.
Citing the research findings, she said along with benefitting from local level interventions, some families have also used livelihood migration as one of the tools.
Siddiqui mentions policies do not promote internal migration.
Differing the view that migration can be a tool for adaptation, Professor of Geography of Dhaka University AQM Mahbub said, rather encouraging migration, people should be settled locally.
If the people being affected by climate change come to the city their sufferings would be intensified. He also questioned the prediction of the figure. How did you calculate the figure?
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Professorial Fellow M Asaduzzaman said migration can be a tool for adaptation individually but not in large scale.
If due to climate change, all people leave from a certain place, that place would be vacant, what would happen to that place?
He suggests that the vulnerability and risks of climate change should have to be reduced.
Team leader of Climate Change and Disaster Resilience at the DFID-Bangladesh Colum Wilson said climate change displaced people and migration can be an adaptation tool. Migration is not taken as adaptation in Bangladesh policies, he added.
Speaking as the chief guest, Disaster Management Secretary Mesbah Ul Alam said Bangladesh is the innocent victim of climate change.
“We have to increase the capacity of our people to reduce the loss for any kind of disaster,” he said.
“We are formulating a disaster management policy and it is at the final stage and we would try to rethink the migration issue,” Alam said.
