Nawaz Sharif has been forced to step down as Pakistan’s Prime Minister. On July 28, five bench judges of Pakistan Supreme Court unanimously found Nawaz Sharif guilty and disqualified him from holding office in Pakistan.
He came under the scanner along with his children when they were linked to offshore companies in the Panama papers. It has been alleged that Sharif’s family bought property in the UK with assets disproportionate to their known sources of income.
He was less than a year away from becoming the first PM in Pakistan’s history to complete a full term in office. Sharif’s luck is a special one -- this is the third time he failed to complete an entire term.
Pakistan’s first prime minister was murdered three years into his term. Four prime ministers have been overthrown by the army. A number of others have been dismissed without reason or without any major reason.
So, Nawaz Sharif getting the short end of the stick thrice over is unfortunate, but not really unexpected. Had he been able to complete his term, it would have made history.
Pakistan and its army
Sharif was the one leader in Pakistan with local support, as he won a fair election. Now that he is gone, several questions arise. Firstly, with him gone, does the army become more important?
I don’t think Nawaz Sharif ever really challenged the army in the past, although on some occasions he did try to push the envelope a bit.
One has to remember how the army used Imran Khan in 2014 to pull Nawaz Sharif down when he wanted to prosecute Pervez Musharraf, and after that, Sharif simply laid his arms before them -- he never challenged the army and he never tried to oppose them.
So, frankly, whether Nawaz Sharif is there or not, the army will stay equally powerful -- no matter who comes in as a chief. The deep state continues to rule Pakistan.
How would Imran Khan fare?
Secondly, with Nawaz Sharif knocked out, given the fact that he did well in the last elections, will Imran Khan do even better or possibly become the next prime minister of Pakistan?
The charges on which Sharif was dismissed are articles 62 and 63 -- which say that one has to be truthful and honest to become a member of the parliament.
If the army were to bring in Imran Khan to power, they would literally have to rig the entire election. Khan just does not have the party machinery
Imran Khan certainly doesn’t fit the clause of articles 62 and 63. There are offshore companies that he never declared, there are assets which are dodgy. Maybe because he never had public office, he can’t be classified as corrupt.
But tax evasion is a crime, hiding your assets is a crime, which means you are not truthful. So, ideally, Imran Khan and all his other cronies should also be disqualified. But if they aren’t, then it would be very clear that Imran Khan is somebody whom the army favours. He might be a good cricketer but that’s where it ends. He is a maverick, and not quite right in the head.
Will the army want somebody like him coming and running the country? He has never even run a municipality -- he now wants to run the whole country.
Truth be told, if elections were held today, despite Supreme Court’s, verdict Nawaz Sharif would win. Imran Khan may be an attractive person on television and many do speak against Nawaz Sharif -- but Khan has no substance.
Also, Supreme Court may have disqualified Sharif from holding a public office, but it has not disqualified him from election campaigning. And if Nawaz Sharif is able to run a campaign in his full strength, Imran Khan stands no chance. And that would be better for Pakistan and it’s welfare.
Because Imran Khan has close ties with terrorist organisations, his election cannot be good for Pakistan, nor for Pakistan’s relationship with any of its neighbouring countries.
Thirdly, Imran Khan is one of those characters whose presence on TV is disproportionate to his electoral presence. Could that change in the next election?
If the army were to bring in a guy like Imran Khan to power, they would literally have to rig the entire election. Because Khan just does not have the party machinery, the perseverance, or the political sense to actually marshal the kind of support you need, especially in Punjab.
His party is virtually non-existent in Sindh, and Baluchistan doesn’t count anyway. So, if Punjab is going to be the battleground, Nawaz Sharif has the politics of patronage in place and he has the party machinery.
Even if Nawaz Sharif is disqualified, he can become the Bal Thakre of Pakistan and become the puppeteer behind the guy who becomes the next PM.
What this judgement does is it infects a virus in Pakistan’s already unstable political system, whereby now you’ll have the judiciary being a significant player, trying to run the country on its own. And, if this now is going to become a template, no member of parliament, and much less any prime minister, is going to be safe.
Sharif Hasan is currently working as a field researcher on behalf of Centre for Genocide Studies (CGS), University of Dhaka.
