Imagine a bustling market square in rural Barishal. A farmer stands by his harvest, streaming high-definition video on a digital marketplace to showcase his crop while checking real-time market rates via a third-party app.
On the surface, this scene is the ultimate triumph for Bangladesh’s mobile network operators, who connect over 185 million active SIMs. Yet, behind the screen, a silent financial strain threatens to cripple the sector.
While the farmer’s data consumption soars, the operator providing the invisible highway earns less per gigabyte than ever before. The commoditization of the “dumb pipe” has peaked. Networks are flooded; the capital required to maintain them scales exponentially but financial returns have hit a point of diminishing returns.
From peak to plateau
For nearly three decades, the playbook for Bangladesh’s MNOs was based on a reliable growth formula: Deploy capital, build towers, sell SIMs, and monetize voice and data.
This volume-driven model turned Bangladesh into one of South Asia's most digitally inclusive nations.
However, recent indicators point to a structural exhaustion of this legacy growth model -- a reality underscored by the BTRC’s latest market data. From a peak of approximately 136 million internet subscribers in July 2025, the country lost around seven million users in just six months, dropping mobile subscriptions to 114.22 million by January 2026.
While some contraction stems from a policy restricting SIM ownership per individual, pressure on average revenue per user (ARPU) predates regulatory clean-ups.
OTT applications have eroded voice revenues, data prices are in a race to the floor, and infrastructure costs keep climbing. The pipeline is full of traffic, but the business model built around that pipeline is running dry.
Realism over hype
This is not a Bangladesh-specific phenomenon. According to PwC’s Global Telecoms Outlook, global telecom service revenues are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 2.9% through 2028, well below inflation in most markets.
Global mobile ARPU is expected to decline from $6.32 in 2024 to $6.20 by 2029, with inflation-adjusted ARPU already below zero in major markets since 2018. This data proves that selling raw connectivity is a commodity trap.
Globally, the most resilient operators have drawn the same conclusion: The only exit is a fundamental redesign of the telecom business model.
Blueprint for the new telco model
Escaping the commodity trap lies in transforming telcos from simple bandwidth providers into core digital platforms.
This requires a radical rethink of infrastructure, software monetization, and industry convergence. The following four pillars outline a structural blueprint to transition Bangladesh's operators into high-yield technology companies.
Unbundling the network: The most instructive model for structural redesign comes from Europe. In July 2024, Telecom Italia (TIM) sold its fixed-network infrastructure branded ‘NetCo,’ for €22 billion, slashing its net debt by €13.8 billion.
TIM became the first Tier-1 European giant to split into a wholesale-only infrastructure entity and a service-focused retail operator (ServCo), freeing itself from a massive debt pile of depreciating assets to compete on value, agility, and digital services across consumer and enterprise markets. Denmark’s TDC Group originally pioneered this structural blueprint in 2019.
The principle is universal: Infrastructure ownership is a capital anchor in a low-ARPU environment. Unlocking it through structural separation allows the service business to invest in high-margin layers above the pipe.
Experts identify tower companies, neutral fiber sharing, and asset separation as essential capex discipline tools for the 5G-Advanced era. While Bangladesh’s operators have gone beyond tower sharing and made early moves toward active RAN sharing, accelerating toward fully independent infrastructure entities is the financially sound next step.
Monetizing the network API: The second transformation requires opening the network as a programmable asset. The GSMA Open Gateway initiative provides a framework of standardized application programming interfaces (APIs).
These APIs expose core network capabilities including device location, SIM-swap detection, number verification, and quality-on-demand provisioning directly to software developers and enterprise platforms.
Research from NTT DATA projects the global network API market will reach $14.3 billion by 2030 and $27bn by 2033, heavily concentrated in identity verification, fraud prevention, and dynamic quality-of-service provisioning for real-time applications.
For Bangladesh, this model holds massive potential.
A local fintech platform verifying user identities via real-time SIM data, an e-commerce operator tracking account takeovers, or a logistics company securing guaranteed bandwidth for a time-sensitive delivery app should all buy these capabilities through an automated telco marketplace.
This shifts operators from passive, low-yield highways into active, monetization-ready infrastructure partners for the digital economy.
The enterprise frontier: The third transformation is the hardest to execute but offers the highest potential margins: Shifting from bulk connectivity to selling enterprise outcomes.
IoT application enablement platforms are projected to grow at a 31% CAGR between 2024 and 2029 to approach $250bn, while automotive and mobility cellular IoT will more than double to $34.1bn by 2028.
This addressable market is broader than local operators recognize. Bangladesh’s ready-made garment sector needs real-time supply chain tracking, while agricultural value chains require cold-storage and commodity-pricing IoT networks.
Beyond standard connectivity, modern ports, industrial zones, and critical infrastructure demand private 5G networks with guaranteed uptime, zero-trust identity management, and edge AI processing.
The Chittagong Port, which handles over 92% of Bangladesh’s international trade, is a prime target. Operators can sell the port an integrated managed solution combining secure connectivity, tower-mounted counter-intrusion sensing, and sovereign edge compute.
Globally, ports and heavy industries are deploying dedicated infrastructure because they need mission-grade networks rather than best-effort broadband.
Data from Ericsson's Private 5G Resource Centre points to critical infrastructure and defense-adjacent environments as the primary growth frontiers for standalone enterprise networks. Bangladesh’s operators already own the BTS, spectrum, and footprint; they must now build the systems integration capabilities to package this infrastructure as an outcome rather than a connection.
The fintech convergence: The fourth transformation is the convergence of telecom and financial services into something far deeper than a mere referral arrangement.
Bangladesh boasts one of the world's most mature mobile financial services (MFS) ecosystems. What it lacks is the integration of operator datasets, such as recharge behaviour, network consistency, and geographic usage patterns into credit-scoring systems.
Deploying this data would allow fintech platforms and partner banks to deliver nano-loans, micro-insurance, and related savings products directly within an operator’s user interface.
The architecture is available and the data assets exist; only the commercial drive to deploy them is missing.
From pipeline to platform
The telecom roadblock in Bangladesh is not an engineering problem; it is the natural lifecycle end of a legacy business model. The network works, but the business built around it was designed for a world of scarce connectivity that no longer exists.
Structural asset separation, open network APIs, enterprise-grade infrastructure solutions, and embedded financial services are not distant, aspirational concepts. They are the real-word responses of operators globally facing the exact structural pressures Bangladesh encounters today.
However, this blueprint cannot materialize in a regulatory vacuum. Executing it will require BTRC to shift from rigid, layer-locked licensing silos toward a dynamic, ecosystem-driven policy framework.
The operators that adapt alongside far-sighted regulations will survive this transition and define the next chapter of our digital economy.
Those that continue to measure success solely in gigabytes sold will find that the pipeline they spent decades building becomes an expensive monument to a business model the market has already left behind.
Dr Sabbir Ahmad is an engineering and corporate leader with extensive global experience in digital connectivity, energy infrastructure, and sustainable development. He can be reached at [email protected].
