In its over 75 years of existence, Pakistan has hardly had a comfortable breathing space.
Instead, since its creation, it has had traces of bloody history dotted with coups and counter coups -- and a series of military dictatorships.
The army, time and time again, used brutal power, muzzled the constitution, and subverted the elected governments.
Sadly, within a few years of becoming a new country, its first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, was killed and, in the ongoing political tumult, the army chief, General Mohammad Ayub Khan usurped power, banished his patron Iskander Ali Mirza and assumed full power in 1958, ruling ruthlessly till 1969.
During his reign, Pakistan did not see any significant development or progress -- with no signs of any zeal or enthusiasm as a new country. Instead, the military reinforced its power, stifling the country's polity.
These traces of history appear to show Pakistan in a perspective.
Regime of another ruthless dictator, General Yahya Khan, presided over further weakening of democratic prospects and the highhandedness of the mighty army led to an uprising in East Pakistan -- eventually witnessing its complete dismemberment and leading to the birth of Bangladesh.
Its birth failed Jinnah's two nation theory and proved that religion did not play a role in retaining a country's sovereignty. Jinnah's obstinacy in the imposition of Urdu in Bangladesh also contributed to the rise of Bengali nationalism and subsequent ceding of East Pakistan out of Pakistan.
Later, in the seventies, military dictator General Muhammad Zia-ul- Haq (1977-1988) not only politicized the Pakistani armed forces, but also Islamized the military -- thus giving little chance for democracy to take its roots.
Further, General Pervez Musharraf, with a misplaced ambition to model Pakistan in the image of Turkey's Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, failed miserably in his grandiose plans -- and instead abetted military jingoism, as seen from his failed misadventures in Kargil in 1999.
Dwelling upon the movement of the military in the annals of Pakistani history, its all-powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) also witnessed a phenomenal and monstrous growth -- thus not allowing the elected or civilian governments to keep it under check.
Present turmoil
That gradually led to problems as evident today in the current happenings in Pakistan.
In light of the above, it is important to discuss the fresh occurrences in Pakistan, starting with the conviction and arrest of former prime minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan leading to a slew of problems that have landed the country into an unprecedented situation.
Imran Khan was found guilty in the case of corruption in the Al-Qadir Trust and Toshakhana cases and his arrest, as seen from the visuals, confirmed that the country was, and is in, a panic mode today.
The cricketer turned politician, known for his flamboyance, always had a touch of behaving like a supremacist, expressing pride about his Pathan lineage and looked down upon Bengalis as racially inferior.
However, in a dramatic and surprising move on May 13 in a video address to the nation, he blamed the then Pakistani establishment for the excesses committed on Bengalis that led to its independence.
He also claimed to be present in Dhaka around at that critical juncture where he had gone to play an under nineteen cricket match and the aircraft that flew him to Pakistan was the last one from Dhaka before the liberation struggle related happenings started unfolding in 1971.
However, it is intriguing to notice the timing; just as Pakistan is beleaguered by such turbulent activities, Imran Khan would touch upon the highhandedness of Bengalis.
Is he insinuating the Baloch separatism brewing in Pakistan or is he trying to win the sympathy of the Pakistani masses in general to isolate the military, which is now his principal foe?
Judging by the ongoing developments, it appears likely that the country, embroiled with chaos and panic, stands divided in every segment of its institutions.
For example, the army is sharply polarized on the question of handling Imran Khan before and after his arrest.
Also, the judiciary is equally split, with the chief justice of Pakistan clearly favouring Imran Khan -- while many others are against him.
The ISI is equally suffering from groupism as Imran Khan had been consistent in his attacks -- naming a serving major general for plotting to kill him.
Interestingly, the corps commander's house in Lahore was vandalized on May 9 and now the army chief and some other officers of critical seniority want action against the perpetrators of the vandalism and plunderers.
However, at the same time, there are reports that a section of middle level army officers did not order to stop the looting, meaning that they were in support of Imran and his adherents.
So, the judiciary, the armed forces, the ISI, and the political dispensation are markedly divided in their approach in the handling of Imran Khan and the prevailing crisis. This is indeed worrisome.
Many analysts are not shying away from asserting that Pakistan is undergoing a civil strife even on the lines of the recent divide in the Sudanese armed forces.
In sum, as the country appears to descend into chaos, the failing country looks to be in the grip of extreme uncertainty. It appears that anything may erupt at any time, causing ramifications of extreme nature -- which even the military may find it difficult to handle.
These developments merit a close watch as the military, which has usually always been calling the shots in the past, is now divided -- on taking control of the situation or allowing the happenings to go astray.
Similarly, the political dispensation under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif seems clueless to direct the country to salvage the situation; the president and the chief justice appear to be on one side. Shehbaz's brother Nawaz Sharif, who is ruling by proxy in London, is also at a loss to address the problem.
Meanwhile, Imran Khan, who was arrested in haste (and released also in haste), possibly due to the knee-jerk reactions, is having the last laugh by freely articulating his thoughts with uninhibited remarks on social media.
He looks more emboldened and fearless than before in taking on the army, the ISI, and the political leadership. The coming weeks, therefore, are worth observing, particularly with regard to the role of the military and, possibly, of the external players like the US and China.
Shantanu Mukharji is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius
