There’s something suspiciously “old hat” in the way one of diplomacy’s sternest warnings are being issued. We had the sexed-up satellite images used to hoodwink the United Nations Security Council by the United States to justify a combined attack on Iraq for crossing the red line. No one was taken to task for the weapons of mass destruction carrot that was offered and never found.
Israel accused Iran
The same stage, albeit larger, was when Benjamin Netanyahu put a stake in the sand in drawing a red line to try and convince world leaders of Iran reaching the pivotal point of manufacturing nuclear weapons.
There was never a counter debate of the nuclear stockpile that Israel holds. No one questioned the absence of a confirmation or denial, it was accepted that his words were true. That it was information Iran had but chose to keep under the cloak for reasons best known to them.
Netanyahu would have loved to send in a covert strike on Iran, but was probably dissuaded by Israel’s greatest ally, one who must know of Israel’s nuclear proficiency given it bankrolls the country … So a second red line came to grief.
The Russia-US double line
And now we have Sergei Lavrov commenting on the crossing of the red line through the United States’ commitment of sophisticated long-range missiles to Ukraine.
The United States didn’t bother to attend the Security Council on Ukraine knowing any resolution would be vetoed and has since declared it would go at it alone if required. Seventy billion is the cost to the US economy to date and counting.
Now it’s Russia’s turn to react to a red line crossing. She has already said that for all practical purposes the West are now active partners in the war. Barring boots on the ground that is essentially true. Some of the choicest weaponry many countries would dearly like to possess has been made available to Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The best military analysts know in their heart of hearts this is one war where a victor is unlikely and if so, no time soon.
Putin doesn’t venture out of his country lately with the annoying wasp of the International War Crimes Tribunal threat pursuing him like a shadow. Russia doesn’t recognize the body, but could not risk its leader even being embarrassed. It extended to the extent of him not attending the G20 or BRICS summits.
This was notwithstanding Brazilian President Lula’s public statement warning against any attempt to inconvenience the Russian President and the fact that Narendra Modi’s India was hosting the G-20. In effect, it did what Russia would have hated; Putin is in Coventry. A red line, perhaps?
India’s qualms with China and Canada
India is bristling over the latest snub by China. Hard on the heels of BRICS, Xi Jinping authorized a map that incorporates Ladakh as part of China. An emphatic reminder of the swathe of territory China has taken control of with India holding its peace. Another red line crossed without too much fuss.
But then, Indian diplomacy has more to do with covertness dosed with vanishing tricks as it seeks de facto leadership of the South. The sterling success of a very budget friendly moon mission highlighted more so in the failure of Russia to do something similar, has been promptly followed by an exercise towards the sun that no other country has done so before. Yet all of the successes came up against a blip. Canada’s Justin Trudeau has drawn his own red line in the saga of the murder of a Canadian Sikh which Trudeau pinned on Indian intelligence wing RAW.
There are several takes on where all this leads. Trudeau has to balance the incident against the business considerations. None of his allies have come out in enraged fashion barring a somewhat lame response that could well be deliberate, from America. And Rishi Sunak has just found out that red line crossings, if not acted upon, can come back to bite.
The Salisbury poisoning of double agent Sergei Skripal made screaming headlines till one fine day it disappeared from the radar. Brazenness can set in when matters are doused. It was a dubious inheritance and one that has bitten. Three Bulgarians arrested on the grounds of spying for Russia adds volumes to the Skripal incident. The accused in that case, or at least one of them, had glibly stared upon the safe surroundings of his homeland, insisting that he had only been to Salisbury to see the iconic Cathedral.
When powerful countries have strong agendas, red lines can become a bit of a blur.
Mahmudur Rahman is a writer, columnist, broadcaster, and communications specialist.
