The intricate geo-strategic process related to the convening of the historic summit between North Korea and the United States, supported by South Korea, on June 12, was like a zebra crossing a zebra crossing -- sometimes you see it and sometimes you don’t. It has been the world’s biggest geo-political drama in the recent past.
It was held in the Capella hotel, located on the island resort of Sentosa (Malay for “peace and tranquility”) off Singapore. Security was the chief concern for both parties. Nevertheless, despite all the difficulties and challenges, it did take place and the world will now wait and watch how factors evolve in the political and strategic arenas after the much-awaited joint declaration between the two parties.
As it stands, the North Korean leader has assumed a new popular role within the international arena. After years in isolation, he has emerged as a powerful player. Leaders from China, Russia, South Korea, and the US have all met or are due to meet Kim before the end of this year. After Singapore, it will create its own shadow.
This has led Jean Lee, a former AP bureau chief in Pyongyang to remark: “We are witnessing the making of Kim Jong-un, international statesman. This is such a different international debut than the one we saw in 2010, when Kim Jong-un stepped forward as the unknown, baby-faced heir apparent.
“Now, with a proven intercontinental ballistic missile under his belt, Kim is stepping out as the leader of a country that sees itself as a nuclear power on par with the world’s other nuclear powers, including the US.” This has enabled North Korea to force its way to the negotiating table from a position of strength.
However, most strategists believe that this success on the part of Kim Jong-un meeting President Trump would not have taken place without the efforts of the liberal South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who campaigned with the promise to engage with North Korea.
This allowed him to establish a relationship with his neighbour. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s persuasion and careful political planning on the part of Kim Jong-un also helped.
This new diplomatic strategy did not just arise from a position of strength, but also out of necessity. The ball game has emerged because of Kim’s focus on the deteriorating status of the North Korean economy.
He realized that time had come to forge alliances and rebuild old friendships. He correctly focused on China, North Korea’s main trading partner. Pyongyang understood that President Xi Jinping had to be won over.
Two visits to China came in under two months -- first to Beijing and then to Dalian in early May. Each visit was made just days before Kim met the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This was a cunning strategic move which may have allowed him to play one off against the other. This was also done because Kim believed that China was in favour of a slower approach to de-nuclearization and would prefer sanctions to be lifted to keep North Korea’s economy stable.
The other careful maneuver within the diplomatic outreach of North Korea was to engage with Russia. Kim Jong-un decided now was the time to welcome the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Pyongyang. This happened while his emissary, former North Korean spy chief Kim Yong-chol, was on his way to the US to have a meeting with President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo. This has led to inviting Kim to Russia for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Within the geo-strategic matrix, Trump also had to carefully address Japan’s anxiety about its security interests because of its exposure to Kim’s shorter range Hwasong-12 missiles. This has led the US to agreeing not to relieve pressure on North Korea before Japan takes credible concrete steps regarding complete, verifiable (pertaining to all its nuclear sites and fissile material) and irreversible de-nuclearization measures (CVID).
Enthusiastic for a diplomatic victory, the Trump administration has pushed on with the historic meeting this time and created for Pyongyang a new veneer of respectability. After this summit, North Korea will technically also not continue to be at war with both South Korea and the US. This will then facilitate a possible peace treaty with the south, and usher in benefits that might not be opposed by Washington.
The meeting has given Kim Jong-un the necessary street credibility for being able to say that North Korea is open for business. He will need foreign investment to improve his country’s infrastructure and also the availability of requisite energy for rapid industrialization. Last year, Kim’s nuclear arsenal was a liability, now he has turned them into a diplomatic tool and political leverage.
Understandably, all the details of the summit have not been revealed. Nevertheless, as pointed out and suggested in the joint declaration and subsequent press comments by Trump, in all likelihood, there was discussion on possible de-nuclearization of the Korean peninsula, moratorium on nuclear and missile tests, and upholding of human rights in North Korea. Kim, it is understood, also sought the weakening of sanctions and easing the concept of US military preemption as exemplified through joint armed forces drills in and around South Korea.
This summit consequently has been a huge gamble with a communist state which is hard to read. However, if Kim and Trump are able to achieve some success, it will reduce the threat of nuclear war and enhance the prospect of peace.
The fact that the summit has been held is the first step towards a possible follow-up summit in the White House later on. Both parties have stressed on putting the past behind them and moving forward.
It is understood that different working groups will be set up by the two parties to facilitate resolution of the challenges through careful monitoring of the evolving circumstances. This will then determine the question of revision of sanctions and the prospect of foreign investment in the DPRK.
If all fails, it will be back to brinkmanship and the Korean Peninsula will continue to be in a quagmire.
Muhammad Zamir, a former ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. He can be reached at [email protected].
