Donald Trump officially “pulled out” of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran deal, on May 8. This deal had been agreed upon by major players in the international sphere -- the US, Russia, China, France, Germany, the UK, and others in the EU.
This agreement was signed on October 18, 2015 and has been effective since January 2016. The purpose of the deal was to restrict Iran’s nuclear ambitions with the help of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to guide Iran into a peaceful nuclear program.
This agreement allows the IAEA to visit Iran’s sites unannounced and included extensive surveillance procedures to make sure Iran does not run an illegal nuclear weapons program. The deal was agreed upon by major international players but faced opposition from Israel -- the key critic of this deal.
Israel argues Iran’s influence in the Middle East is growing, ie in Syria, Yemen, and war-torn, post-Saddam Iraq, which instills fear among Israel’s elites.
Israel has consistently advocated for harsher sanctions on Iran’s establishment, who are in vehement opposition to Israeli aggression against Palestinians and aids Israel’s primary adversaries, Hamas and the Hezbollah.
Since the presidential campaign of 2016, Trump had advocated for withdrawal from the Iran deal. Trump is a major critic of Obama who, in Trump’s view, was “weak” and promised, if elected, to revamp America’s stance in the global stage through sheer diplomatic strength.
This withdrawal came days after Prime Minister of Israel Netanyahu staged a show in front of the media by hosting a farcical presentation with alleged documents and DVDs which apparently prove Iran’s “lies” and their secret nuclear program.
No actual evidence whatsoever was provided by Netanyahu and the Israeli administration -- just accusations. This was eventually followed by Trump using this presentation as justification to pull out of the Iran deal.
What does this imply?
Trump has an immense support base among evangelical Protestant Christians. Usually, the position of the evangelicals is the support of Zionism by returning the Jewish people to their “home” using biblical justifications.
Although Orthodox Jews argue that in the Jewish Bible, the Torah, Jews are prohibited from having a “state.” This is the primary reason for Trump to have close ties with Israel.
Therefore, Iran being the primary supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah is the main point of contention for Zionists and their allies, the evangelical Christian Zionists. The withdrawal was not accepted by the other parties of the JCPOA agreement, who have all rejected the US’s decision, which isolates the US further in the Middle East as it is being sidelined in the Syrian conflict.
Additionally, Trump is attempting to impose sanctions on Iran. Does this further imply a Zionist proxy war against Iran?
Iran and Israel are polar opposites in terms of geo-politics in the Middle East. Since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, it brought about an ultra-conservative government in Tehran and has had problems with regional integration as well as relations with major powers.
Although Iran has relatively close ties with the China-Russia bloc, it still has progress to make in building friendly relations with other countries.
Iran has had former US President Bush declare it as part of the “axis of evil” along with two other anti-US states, including North Korea. Since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, US establishments have flirted with the idea of helping the Iranian government change.
This idea is heavily supported by the Israelis as this would eliminate their primary geo-political adversary from the region.
Despite all the recent political build-ups, it seems the Iran Deal has not been abandoned by China and Russia. The current US establishment under the administration of Trump along with Israel is attempting to further isolate Iran in order to achieve the regime change contingency strategy of the US.
In addition, this goal of such a regime change in Iran will not be as easy as it was in Iraq or Libya. The US and their allies experienced a heavy embarrassment when their attempt in Syria failed and the conflict has continued, for seven years.
Therefore, an Iranian regime change may break out into an all-out war which would destabilize the Middle East further and impact the global oil markets that may also have severe effects on the global economy.
Russia’s influence in the Middle East is growing as it is increasingly being portrayed as a more “successful” power broker than the US. In addition to that, China’s Silk Road agenda that includes major involvement from Iran may coincide with these parties to pursue a goal of “stabilizing” the Middle East.
China, being a major importer of Iranian oil and being a major competitor of the US in the global economy, may naturally be inclined to help an anti-American Iran. Although China has not openly shown support for Iran against the US, it has pursued a strictly commercial relationship with them.
The US’s withdrawal from the JCPOA further isolates the US from the region. This is evident as Russia, China, EU, and the UK have all criticized Trump’s decision.
As a result, it can be argued that the US is losing its influence of global hegemony, especially in the oil-rich Middle Eastern region. It will be critical to see if further proxies are raised against the Iranian establishment, or if the situation will escalate in other forms.
The geo-political adversaries of the US may look to capitalize on this event.
However, as Russia is focused in Syria and has limited capabilities in the unipolar World Order, it may not want to over-involve itself in the greater geo-political chessboard.
Also, since China’s primary goal is to build trust among the Eurasian and African landscapes, it would not want to engage in a direct confrontation against the US.
Thus, it seems that leaving the JCPOA will have significant implications on the US’s global position and indicates a decline of the US’s once one-sided influence over its allies, which is slowly slipping away.
Ahmed Ashfaque Shahbaz is Editor and Founder of Qutnyti.
