Like an elephant, the Indian sub-continent is too big to swallow in one go. Bite-size chunks make more sense.
Western diplomats, blindsided by Delhi's refusal to rebuff the Russians, have been intent on peeling away the peripheral states of the sub-continent for some time.
Nepal under a US-imposed MCC grant (it wasn't cricket, it was coercive). Sri Lanka: where Victoria-love the EU- Nuland is prowling Colombo with a big stick again. Pakistan. Now it's Bangladesh.
Then, they will go for the big one, India.
Perhaps it has already started. The Gujarat mafia is being spanked. Adani gets whacked by short-seller Hindenberg. Modi gets rattled by a BBC documentary, one year late. Should they not have reported on the 20th anniversary (2022) of the pogrom?
Ah, but that would have coincided with the invasion of Ukraine. The West needed to gather its posse of allies and whip the Russians, mainly by sanctions and a boycott of Russian energy exports.
File photo: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hold a news conference at the State Department in Washington on September 27, 2022 ReutersImagine the horror. Delhi's Western diplomats were blindsided by a sudden burst of Indian patriotism. Foreign Minister Jaishankar and (Howdy) Modi, until then, solidly behind the West, decided to apply the principles of the bazaar to geo-politics.
Over the past twelve months, India has multiplied its Russian gas imports by a whopping thirty-three times. It is buying at deep discounts to save its economy. Leftovers are re-badged or refined and re-exported to a thirsty Europe. Sanctions, you ask? Well.
For a decade it was clear that the ascent of Adani was way too rapid and dubious. It seems a handful of 24-year-old auditors were checking the opaque debt-drenched share purchases of the conglomerate. Perhaps not a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme, but certainly an ultra-virulent form of crony capitalism. The Indian stock market bubble seems to be popping. The BJP Brahmins, including influential NRIs, must be reeling.
Dhaka is a destination
The brief midnight visit by the new Chinese foreign minister, Qin Gang, to Dhaka's airport terminal has naturally raised eyebrows. It looked like an emergency meeting with a summoned Momen. Does Dhaka really want to do something rash and lose access to irreplaceable Chinese capital?
Donald Lu, Virtual Viceroy for the Sub-continent, also flying in has certainly allowed some to connect the dots. Will Dhaka fold and accept the US demand to become an Airbnb military base in return for a GSP sop to the garment-wallahs?
File photo: Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen speaks at the bilateral meeting at US Department of State in Washington Monday, April 5, 2022 UNBAre neocons seeing this as a potential frontline state in the Containment of China. Think Indo-Pacific, or, quasi QUAD+. Perhaps along with a move on Myanmar? A trial balloon floated by Subir Bhaumik, an ex-BBC hack -- in tandem with a handful of our domestic dreamers -- crafting a dangerous narrative. Yes, it is all about going against China.
Is Dhaka's foreign policy elite oblivious to the country's underlying geo-political strengths to negotiate despite pressure? Is it acting like it is back in 2006? Is it conflating future national prosperity with present political survival?
Bow to the West
Over on the Indus, the Pakistani military, fronted by the Sharif and Bhutto clans, ousted Imran Khan last year. Regime change on the sub-continent is back on.
The Godfather General Qamar Javed Bajwa just came out with it. He asked all to effectively surrender to the supposed market logic of the US being Pakistan's largest export market, and therefore also its master. Thankfully, he is now in retirement.
The very dodgy kind of national (dis)unity government, backed by the army, looks clueless. With a rather pathetic pool of foreign exchange for three (yes, three) weeks of imports, it is begging its creditors to hold off. Sri Lanka with seven times the population, and Islamic nuclear bombs.
One wonders if the Chinese are nonplussed with Islamabad. Billions upon billions building the energy and transport backbone of the country and a new regime tries to wiggle out of commitments and even meddle in Afghanistan, on behalf of NATO.
This week, Imran Khan promised he would take the IMF loans but would return to a neutral foreign policy (read that as back to China, and a gas pipeline from Russia). Even the current pro-Washington regime is being forced to negotiate with Moscow to buy Russian gas in rupees (anything but scarce US dollars).
File photo: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Pakistan's Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari trade places to deliver remarks after their meeting at the State Department in Washington, DC on September 26, 2022 AFPAn injured Imran Khan refuses to retire and the country faces the lottery of imminent provincial elections and a touted general election in September (let's see). Will Donald Lu and his ever so anxious free-and-fair-election campaigners be as keen on impartiality in Pakistan as opposed to Bangladesh? Depends, right?
Bangladesh is being pummeled for doing only a fraction of what Pakistan has done with China. Just saying. The democracy drive is a cover. Always has been. Always will be. How is Egyptian General-President Sisi doing? Lots of pointers there, if you are interested.
All is not lost. Not by a long shot. The grip of Washington on the sub-continent is and will be contested. A toppling of a government is not secure nor permanent. People power works for the other side too as does an elite counter-reaction. You can change a government, but the new one may have a very short shelf life. Look around the globe recently. Bolivia. Peru. Pakistan. And a whole lot more near misses too.
Corruption and communists
As Bangladesh wins the silver medal for corruption on the sub-continent (according to Transparency), it could spend a few minutes studying the recent shifts in its rival or model: Vietnam (which in turn has been taking a serious look at China's drive against corruption).
Vietnam has shown the door to its pro-Western and corrupt leader. The Communist Party is cutting off conduits into the elite, hitherto open for Western diplomats, and realigning its strategic posture. The story of the vibrant Vietnam story has been hit by a property bust and a crashing stock market, but the economy will continue rising medium-term.
The difference may well be that relations with China improve, even as the China+1 industrial migration project remains.
The BBC is unhappy, along with many Western commentators. Hanoi must have done something right, then. Elites on the sub-continent, especially its periphery, may want to take notice.
Farid Erkizia Bakht is a political analyst.
