As Covid-19 takes a firm grip over Bangladesh, the government is still on its track regarding the shutdown of offices to limit the movement of people, but experts say that a proper lockdown is imperative to stem the spread of the virus.
With confirmed cases surging almost every day since the first was reported early in March, the government has adopted the strategy of locking down areas which are most at risk, which is based on a history of the confirmed cases.
But a complete nationwide lockdown for the next two months is the only way to slow down or possibly stop the exponential spread of the novel coronavirus infection, according to experts.
As of Friday, Bangladesh has reported over 400 confirmed cases and 27 deaths since the first cases were reported on March 8.
The government’s disease control agency, IEDCR said 94 people tested positive from 1,097 samples in the last 24 hours.
Bangladesh has been testing an alarmingly low number of suspects considering its high population.
Only 10 suspected cases are being tested for around a million people while the number runs in hundreds to up to 10,000 in many countries, which means it clearly does not show the real picture in Bangladesh.
Over two weeks after the first three cases were reported on March 8, the government ordered a shutdown of offices and public transports, which is termed as a general holiday, from March 26 before extending it to April 25.
Which way to go for a lockdown?
The purpose of lockdown as explained by a new study from the Imperial College London’s COVID-19 Response Team is to reduce reproduction – in other words, to reduce the number of people each confirmed case infects.
According to infectious disease specialist Farhad Uddin Hasan Chowdhury Maruf of the Dhaka Medical College Hospital, there are two routes to impose a lockdown — mitigation and suppression.
Mitigation is done by isolating suspected cases and their households, and social distancing the elderly and people at higher risk of serious illness, while suppression is done by social distancing the entire population for a longer time and closing educational institutes and offices.
“Bangladesh has no other option except for a countrywide suppression considering its population and the healthcare system”, he told Dhaka Tribune.
According to Maruf, a 60-day lockdown will also buy the government some time to improve its healthcare system and gather necessary resources to fight the pandemic.
“It all depends on how well the government sets its policy. Food, medicine and essential supplies should not come under the lockdown. For the rest of the citizens, lockdown should mean a complete lockdown. Nobody will be allowed to leave their homes unless it is an emergency,” he said.
Neighbouring India went for a 21-day nationwide lockdown, unlike Bangladesh which imposed a shutdown, which it has already extended thrice.
However, according to a model developed by Cambridge University scholars, Rajesh Singh and R Adhikari, three weeks is not enough for India to slow down the spread of the virus and a quick resurgence of the outbreak will follow soon after it’s lifted.
They predict a 49-day lockdown could bring the number of infections down to less than 50 by mid- May.
Is a complete lockdown feasible?
There are some serious challenges of entering a complete lockdown — from ensuring essential groceries and medicines reaching people, to encouraging social distancing and helping the poor through a time of wage disruptions.
Considering the socio-economic state of Bangladesh and the large population living on daily wage, it might not seem feasible.
However, urban planners say it may seem tough but not impossible.
Slums in Dhaka needs special attention, in view of the lack of hygiene with an overwhelming population density, says Dipita Hossain, who teaches Urban and Regional Planning at the BUET.
“Slum-dwellers need to be listed and provided with aid on a door-to-door basis. It will help in avoiding crowding and thus spreading the virus,” she said before adding, it would also help to avoid duplication.
BRAC has mapped slums in Dhaka which can be useful for providing aid to the low-income group, said Hossain.
According to the BUET assistant professor, slum dwellers need cooked and dry food more than financial support and groceries because they use community kitchens, posing a risk of being infected.
Hossain’s colleague, Anindya Kishore Debnath stresses engaging ward councillors.
“Councillors’ could help reach groceries to people. Their offices can collect groceries from the local shops, which would be a good way of helping the local economy as well,” he said.
Medical camps could be set up at local hubs of all the wards so that people with Covid-19 symptoms do not have to travel a long way to the hospitals, suggests Debnath.
“Educational institutions and community centres can be used to set up these camps. Maintaining a safe social distance, these camps could set up booths, like fever booths and testing booths, like in India’s Kerala and South Korea,” he told Dhaka Tribune.
Referring to Taiwan’s approach towards minimizing the spread, he said Taiwan established a Central Epidemic Control Center (CECC) on January 20 right after China started to see the surge in coronavirus confirmed cases. Until then Taiwan has only 373 confirmed cases with one of the lowest death rates.
“It’s never too late to engage experts from different fields. If one thing that global experiences are teaching us about limiting the spread of the virus, is that, it is more of a collective fight than administrative or bureaucratic or diplomatic or political aptitude alone,” said Debnath, an assistant professor at BUET.
Does lockdown work?
China’s Wuhan, the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus pandemic, has lifted its lockdown, that was imposed on almost 11 million people, on Wednesday. The complete lockdown helped China to flatten the growth curve whereas the deadly virus spread like wildfire in countries like Italy, USA, Spain, and Iran.
According to findings of a preliminary research, lockdown and social distancing measures introduced by the UK to slow the spread may already be working and could soon see infections declining, Reuters reported earlier this month.
Like many other countries affected by the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus, Britain has imposed strict social distancing measures including shop and school closures. Authorities are also asking everyone to stay at home except for essential travel.
Global cases of the coronavirus have shot past 1 million with more than 54,000 fatalities, a Reuters tally showed on Friday.
Bangladesh has reported 424 cases and 27 deaths so far, the country’s disease control agency said on Friday.
The same day, the government extended the shutdown of offices to April 25 and ordered people not to leave home after 6pm.
