With voting in 311 seats of the 543-seat Indian Lok Sabha set to commence in a few days in four phases, it is thought that the results of these seats would be crucial in deciding who forms the next government in India.
About 50 crore voters are eligible to vote in the remaining phases and that’s why they are being dubbed as the “game makers” of this election. Turnout in the first few phases so far have far exceeded that of the 2009 polls and is expected to remain so in the coming four phases.
Of the 311 seats to be contested, 266 seats are in the nine most important states of India - Tamil Nadu(39), Maharashtra(19), Karnataka(28), Bihar(20), Andhra Pradesh(42), Gujarat(26), Punjab(13), Uttar Pradesh(47), and West Bengal(32).
In the last Lok Sabha elections, the current ruling Congress-led alliance bagged 109 seats while the opposition BJP and its allies could muster only 57 seats. But, with the Modi wave currently sweeping the country, holding on to these seats would be a Herculean task for the ruling alliance.
Uttar Pradesh (UP) has the highest number of seats in the Lok Sabha (80), polling having been completed in 33 of these already. Although the BJP-led alliance’s prime ministerial candidate, the chief minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi, has been able to make some inroads into this crucial state, the important question is: Would this be enough to eat into the votes of Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), although the events of Muzaffarnagar have made a dent in SP’s popularity?
In Uttar Pradesh, political analysts are saying that the main thing to watch is whether voters, despite Muzaffarnagar, shy away from SP and go into the BSP camp or the Congress. It must be remembered that BJP and its allies did not fare well at all in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the last polls.
Bihar would be another state to keep a close eye on. Of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in this state, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD has forged an alliance with the Congress Party in 27, and this has placed them in an advantageous position.
It is thought that Gujarat and Punjab would go the BJP way, Gujarat being Modi’s stronghold and Punjab being ruled for a number of years by BJP’s ally Akali Dal.
In Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, the regional parties are so strongly placed that the national parties have to come to some sort of understanding with them. Tamil Nadu could pose to be very difficult for both the BJP and Congress, with chief minister Jayalalitha and her AIADMK riding high on popularity. Some experts even say that in case of a hung parliament, Jayalalitha could even flex her muscles to decide who would become the next prime minister of India.
In Andhra Pradesh, however, Jagmahon Reddy’s USR Congress could do better than expected, and Congress may have to cut a sorry face in this state. Added to that, the Telengana factor could put Congress under pressure.
In West Bengal, voters would go to elect 32 of the 42 members of the Lok Sabha from this state in the remaining four phases. The state’s ruling Trinamool Congress is expected to make gains at the expense of Congress Party, and the Chief Minister Mamata Bandopadhyay could have a say on who forms the next government at the Centre. It was quite significant that veteran BJP leader Lal Krishna Advani, during a recent speech in West Bengal, did not even utter her name, keeping in mind that after the elections, her support could become crucial.
A new phenomenon in the political arena in India is the emergence of Aam Aadmi Party, (AAP), led by a former civil servant, Arvind Kejriwal, who not only surprised the people of India but also themselves by becoming the single largest party in the Delhi polls last year. They did form a government with the support of Congress Party but had to resign shortly thereafter. Nonetheless, AAP has now fielded the largest number of candidates by a single party in the current elections and they have entered into politics with a different notion – idealism, and not money, would be the driving force.
It is also quite interesting that AAP leader, Arvind Kejriwal has pitted himself against the BJP supremo Narendra Modi from Varanasi in UP where the other parties have fielded relatively weaker candidates. So, this would be a head-to-head fight between these two leaders on the last day of polling, May 12. Narendra Modi is also contesting from Vadodara in his home state. After defeating Sheila Dixit in the Delhi polls, Kejriwall would have to prove his mettle against Narendra Modi. This would also be a test of Kejriwal’s secular identity.
What impact could AAP have on this election? This is a question asked by many.
Many pundits opine they may well corner a reasonable percentage of votes in the midst of a huge Modi wave. They have definitely caught the imagination of the people by taking on the two established political parties, the BJP and the Congress. They have been able to position themselves as a “clean alternative” to a prevailing corrupt system. It is not just the educated, elitist class who are supporting them, but they have also won the hearts of the men on the streets.
Some say that quitting the government in Delhi was a big jolt to their prospect, and their hasty decision to quit isolated a section of their supporters.
AAP is expected to bag around 10 seats, but what their candidates could do is create an arithmetical problem in some pockets as they are likely to pull anti-Congress and anti-BJP votes. In fact, in some constituencies there could be havoc.
Experts also say that although AAP came into the political scene with a loud bang, their main problem is that they are yet to get themselves organised as a “party.” But people hope that after the elections, they will get themselves more structured and function better as a political party. Their major challenge will be to win with absolute majority in the Delhi polls, deliver, and be counted.
All eyes are now squarely on the next four phases of polling for the 16th Lok Sabha of India. Because of the diverse electorate and dominance of local candidates, it is extremely difficult to forecast Indian elections. In 2004, opinion polls predicted that the BJP-led alliance would win, which was proved wrong. In 2009, the margin of the Congress-led alliance’s win was underestimated in the predictions.
It is now being predicted that the BJP-led alliance will just cross the magic figure of 272 to clinch absolute majority. The Indian voters do have a history of proving the experts wrong, and they would have the final say.
