Let me start with a classic example of Venezuela, which is a tropical nation and a former Spanish colony that gained its independence in 1821. Over the years, Venezuela has experienced recurring challenges related to water and energy security, many of which have been aggravated by climatic variability and prolonged dry conditions.
The question of what causes an energy crisis in a country like Venezuela does not always have a simple answer. Different observers often provide different explanations.
Critics have historically argued that insufficient investment in power infrastructure, hydrological systems, and water management facilities left the country vulnerable to supply disruptions.
At the same time, governments have frequently pointed to climatic factors, particularly the El Niño phenomenon, as a major contributing factor.
Today, in 2026, the world is once again witnessing the emergence of a significant El Niño event.
Climate monitoring agencies indicate a very high probability that El Niño conditions will persist through the remainder of the year and potentially intensify further.
Forecasts suggest that this event may substantially alter rainfall patterns across many regions of the globe, including parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Latin America.
Historically, El Niño has been associated with reduced rainfall and drought conditions in several regions that depend heavily on hydroelectric power generation. Venezuela offers a useful example.
During previous El Niño episodes, including the severe 1997-98 event, drought conditions reduced water levels in reservoirs and hydroelectric dams, forcing authorities to ration electricity and implement conservation measures.
Water shortages directly affected power generation because hydroelectric facilities supplied a substantial portion of the nation's electricity.
The broader lesson is that weather-related shocks can expose existing weaknesses in energy and water systems. A prolonged dry spell may not create a crisis by itself, but it can intensify vulnerabilities that already exist because of inadequate infrastructure, rising demand, or insufficient planning.
I cite the Venezuelan experience because it offers important parallels for countries such as Bangladesh.
Like many developing nations, Bangladesh faces growing pressures on both its water and energy sectors. The emergence of the 2026 El Niño raises legitimate concerns about the possible effects of prolonged dry conditions, reduced river flows, and changing rainfall patterns on water availability and power generation.
Across Asia, scientists and agricultural experts are already warning that the developing El Niño is contributing to hotter and drier conditions in several countries, with potential implications for food production, water resources, and economic activity.
We are all aware of the importance of electricity and water in a modern society. One of the indicators of economic progress is the amount of electricity consumed to support industry, commerce, and daily life.
Likewise, water is essential not only for household consumption but also for agriculture, manufacturing, and energy production.
Bangladesh's power challenges did not begin with El Niño, and the country has experienced energy shortages for many years due to a combination of structural and operational factors.
However, the important question today is whether the developing 2026 El Niño is making those challenges more severe.
Has the current dry spell reduced water availability for power generation? Has it placed additional pressure on water supplies needed for agriculture, industry, and households?
These are questions that deserve careful investigation. Relevant agencies and research institutions in Bangladesh should assess the extent to which the ongoing El Niño is influencing the country's water and energy situation.
Such analysis would help policy-makers distinguish between long-term structural problems and climate-related disruptions.
Looking ahead, climate scientists warn that a warming planet may influence the intensity, frequency, or impacts of future El Niño and La Niña events.
Although uncertainties remain, the increasing exposure of societies to climate extremes underscores the need for resilient infrastructure and forward-looking planning.
Public officials responsible for forecasting, water management, energy planning, and infrastructure development should therefore incorporate El Niño and La Niña risks into future projects, ensuring that water and power systems are better prepared for the climatic challenges of the decades ahead.
Dr Md Rashed Chowdhury is a climate scientist and is currently affiliated with Arizona State University (USA). Email:[email protected].
