It caught everyone -- in Nepal and abroad -- by total surprise: Both the public anger’s intensity of explosion and the speed with which a near two-thirds majority UML-Kangress government fell ignominiously in less than 36 hours. In contrast, similar uprisings in Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya movement lasted five months in July 2022; and Bangladesh’s July 2024 lasted slightly over a month.
And more to everyone’s continuing surprise, every new day fresh information tumbles out about what happened on fateful Monday and Tuesday of 8th and 9th September, and who were involved. There has been a tendency to brush off uncomfortable conclusions as “conspiracy theory” and pessimistic Cassandra’s rantings; but events over the last month have shown that Nepali Cassandras (like the original who warned of Greeks bearing gifts) were right! In all the continuing turmoil and uncertainty, one warning by critics that was ignored stands out: It was that this dispensation’s foundation was not only unstable but made worse by rampant corruption, and that was the primary reason for its dramatic collapse.
Monday, September 8 began as any other day of other protests, except that what remained of the social media not shut down by the authorities was abuzz with more energy given that it was Gen-Z’s lifeline. In the cacophony of slogans, only two stood out as the main demands: lifting the social media ban and an end to corruption by bringing the crooks in high office to justice.
Also, what stood out was their political naïveté: its prominent organizers had specifically asked disgruntled political movements such as Durga Prasai’s NOT to come to their rallies at Maiti Ghar and Koteshwar to show support. I remember a senior political figure phoning me: his grandson had said he was going to participate and had asked grandpa for advice about what kind of clothes he should wear for the protest march!
By mid-day, the situation had spiraled out of control when the authorities began firing on unarmed protestors -- not rubber bullets but real ones and directly at the head and chest -- leaving nearly two dozen dead as per early reports (the number has now gone up to 72). It was the same brutal tactics they had used to cow down protesters months earlier in November at Balkhu during Durga Prasai’s and in March at Koteshwar RPP’s protests.
This time, however, the blatant murder of unarmed youngsters backfired: by nightfall, outrage was being expressed all over Nepal, not just among Gen-Z but their older guardians and friends as well. The next day’s turnout at the protests was much more than Gen-Z, with both genuinely outraged citizenry and a host of very unsavoury elements fishing in muddy waters.
The target of local forces were the houses of their corrupt political neighbours as well as their investments in hotels, schools, and commercial establishments. It was not Gen-Z, who would be hard-pressed to even name a few politicians, that attacked the houses of such political leaders across Nepal. Perhaps the best Nepali economic magazine, Taksar, highlights in its Sept/Oct issue how it was also the locals who saved many such houses and establishments when there was local goodwill. The headquarters of Lumbini province in Bhalubang as well as Bhatbhateni at Patan Dhoka are examples, the latter having been saved from arsonists and looters by mostly locals who worked there and their relatives.
The most disturbing information to emerge is the third group that targeted Singha Durbar, the Supreme Court as well as other government offices. There is credibility in the growing view that it was the cadres of these very corrupt politicians that ransacked the courts and offices of lawyers where their corruption files were located in order to destroy them. Given that mobile cameras are in practically every hand these days, one can see people close to Prachanda breaking into the parliament building to burn it, as well as senior leaders of RSP Ghanti party indulging in jail break.
The fact that over 600 local ward offices of municipalities were attacked and burned down across Nepal in one afternoon, while it begs the question of some master-mind coordination behind it, might have a simpler but chilling explanation: anger against the three-party kleptocracy of the last two decades that has taken systematic corruption right down to the ward level.
Surveys I have been involved with have indicated that bribes are asked openly even for simple tasks like registration and certification for everyday activities. The local politicians from all big parties up front say they got that position by paying their party superiors, and now they have to recoup their investments.
All this begs the question: What happens to Nepali politics in the days ahead? During the entire Dussain holidays, what people heard and discussed it seems is why the underlying reasons for the violence of September 8-9 has not ended, that more upheavals are expected after the Tihar-Chhat festivals end. That is because of the political immaturity of both the Gen-Z and the Nepal Army that had to step in to quell the violence. The resulting interim agreement of the Sushila Karki government, seen as “NGO”-led, has the stated single mission of holding fresh elections in February. It has not solved any of the underlying political problems but only added to the failed dispensation’s contradictions galore.
First, the 2015 constitution has not worked and should have either been suspended pending rewrite or scrapped in favour of something else. If it had, the 9/9 rupture would not have happened, and the incompetent and corrupt leadership that has been at the helm these last 35 years would have long been weeded out. Holding new elections under it with all the contradictions would only see a repeat of the instability and musical chairs of the last two decades (14 governments in the last 16 years!).
Second, the corrupt leaders, whose corruption case investigations were stalled by those very leaders, have not been arrested and tried. Instead, they have begun speaking out against the interim PM, denigrating Gen-Z, and are actively plotting a comeback, including getting the dissolved supine and incompetent parliament reinstated.
Indeed, the useless provincial governments as well as the upper house have not been dissolved and the discredited party members therein continue to be fed salaries and perks from government coffers. Nor is there any move to remove corrupt officials that worked in cahoots with those leaders in the police, the administration, and the judiciary.
All this points to a betrayal of the aspirations and sacrifices of Gen-Z as well as long-suffering working Nepalis. It also points to another upheaval in the days ahead, with no elections held, or if held, to it being violent and not solving any of the underlying political issues.
Dipak Gyawali is Pragya (Academician) of the Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) and former minister of water resources. A version of this article previously appeared in New Spotlight and has been reprinted under special permission.
