Donald Trump’s re ascendancy to presidency will doubtless mark a return to much of the frivolity that he introduced in 2016. The caveat will be chapter two of the upheaval brought about to diplomacy, the traditional niceties involved, and a far more aggressive stance, fiscal and otherwise.
The proverbial cat was cast among the pigeons with two statements repeated in different forms during the past four years related to the Ukraine war and the Gaza tragedy. A quick resolution of Ukraine has been carefully guarded though analysts believe Russia will be appeased into ending the conflict through nudging Volodomir Zelensky into ceding further territory beyond Crimea permanently.
That would pay put to the thousands of lives wasted in the path of patriotic defense of sovereign territory. It would also wipe the slate clean on the billions of dollars worth of arms and other aid that someone, probably Ukraine, would have to spend decades repaying. How the many lives lost, even more injured or maimed by both Ukraine and Russia would be remembered would then be thrown into uncertainty.
Trump does not believe in the two-state solution to the Gaza conundrum and will likely push ahead with the Abraham arrangement that allows Israel further territory expansion including carving the Golan Heights out of Syria, a country that barely exists. He along with the west is perfectly at ease with Israel defying the infamous Balfour declaration of 1947 that gave Israelis a state.
Thereafter, under different ruses the Jewish state expanded its territory taken from the Palestinians to what it is today. Their existence is now limited to the ignominious “Gaza Strip.” The next phase is likely to be a Gaza more toothless and more dependent on Israel for every aspect of their economy.
The brave Jewish state calls it a war though they are the only party with the most sophisticated army and airforce courtesy the US. Their opponents have a depleted arsenal of rockets and brimming well of faith. As has happened since 1947 all those that have perished or injured and maimed will only be spoken of in whispers in close circles.
It has been an unfair fight between a recognized state and a peoples best described as residents of an improved ghetto. Trump, former President Joe Biden, and western leaders don’t care a whiff about the one-sided concern of Israeli hostages and no mention of Palestinians interned.
Trump has always been against battle involvement unless US interests are directly threatened. That makes the likelihood of economic and political pressure the more preferred route for taking control of Greenland. Nor can his remark about Canada becoming the 51st state of the United States be dismissed totally as being off the cuff.
Addressing Justin Trudeau as the “Governor” of Canada is a statement that should have made it to the United Nations except that that organization has, to a large degree, become a tired and obsolete behemoth. This is one supposed world body whose strongest resolutions have been ignored by countries such as India and Israel.
There are refreshing sides to Trump’s vision. His apathy towards any climate change solutions whereby the best of scientific minds and data is referred to as “fake,” can also be viewed as an assertion that the large nations such as China, Russia, and India have their own domestic priorities that don’t resonate with any global warming concerns. His mistrust of the UN for becoming a bloated bureaucracy and the World Health Organization as being driven down wrong priority channels can’t be overlooked.
The distrust of the World Trade Organization for negotiating agreements that he sees as lumped against the US does have merit. But when it comes to trade wars for “unfair” advantages taken by China and other nations he has a plateful that may well be hard to digest. Americans have been promised drops in inflation; higher import tariffs don’t suggest that’s a workable way forward. Taking back the Panama Canal is more than a threat. This is one American determined to reduce cost of doing business for his country.
Around the world, especially in stronger economies quiet, little disclosed parleys from Canada, across Europe, China, India, and Japan are knocking heads on what if scenarios and relevant counter punches. One thing is for sure. Economic headwinds will make for a bumpy ride as the not so silent battle forges for a new, not global but economic order. If Trump has his way the collateral damage will be to sovereignty and territorial integrity as we currently know of it.
Mahmudur Rahman is a writer, columnist, broadcaster, and communications specialist.
