Political observers around the globe are furiously attempting to understand the local and international implications of Donald Trump’s historic re-election victory. Nowhere is this truer than in Bangladesh, which was the subject of a surprise social media post by the president-elect late in his campaign.
Supporters of the former regime in Dhaka have expressed the hope that Trump’s victory will presage a shift in US policy which will ease their return to power. Others who fear a similar outcome have argued that Bangladesh’s interim government needs to take more decisive action to prevent this. As a longtime Bangladesh watcher, and US foreign policy practitioner, I think the implications of Trump’s victory will be less profound than many are predicting.
Those arguing that President Trump’s return to office will significantly impact Bangladesh have focused on the close personal relationship between the President-elect and Indian Prime Minister Modi. They believe that a Trump Administration will abandon the Biden Administration’s values agenda and give India a free hand to influence events in Bangladesh as it sees fit.
Not surprisingly, these are the same voices who believe that Bangladesh’s July Revolution was the work of the United States and other “foreign hands.” The credibility of these analysts is undermined by their continued denial of the domestic factors that led to Sheikh Hasina’s departure.
No doubt, the style and substance of US foreign policy (and its practitioners) will change when the Trump Administration takes office in January. Issues to include immigration, support for wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and trade policy are among those that featured most prominently during the presidential campaign. In general, the Trump campaign argued for a less interventionist foreign policy and a return to an “America First” approach. It is wishful thinking, however, for anyone to pretend that Bangladesh is or was a priority for the Trump campaign.
That said, Bangladesh’s interim government should take a moment to consider how the changes in the United States might affect the bilateral relationship. The good news for Dhaka is that they have time to do so, as it will likely take months for the Trump Administration to be fully staffed and begin to implement policy changes that might impact Bangladesh.
Even with a Republican Senate majority, it will likely not be until mid-2025 that the full Trump Administration foreign policy team (to include key sub cabinet positions) is in place. With so many pressing issues, Bangladesh policy will likely not be a top priority for the new team.
Any consideration of Bangladesh’s foreign policy, to include the US relationship, should start with an analysis of Dhaka’s domestic priorities and a consideration of how the international environment affects these. Just as President Trump will be guided by “America First,” Chief Advisor Yunus should be guided by “Bangladesh First.”
It is wishful thinking, however, for anyone to pretend that Bangladesh is or was a priority for the Trump campaign
The interim government’s mandate to implement reforms leading to free and fair elections, while addressing the carnage left behind by the Hasina regime, has not changed. As the meetings in New York at the UNGA made clear, there is a broad international coalition that is ready to assist the interim government in carrying out this agenda. There is no reason to believe that the United States will not want to continue to be a part of this coalition.
At the same time, the bilateral relationship between the US and Bangladesh is much broader than simply government to government or chief executive to chief executive. Bangladesh continues to have many friends in the United States, to include Members of Congress, non-governmental organizations, journalists, and representatives of the business community. These will serve as a stabilizing factor in the relationship.
While the Hasina regime thought it would gain mileage from picking fights with Washington, invoking memories of 1971 or more recent alleged conspiracies, it is highly unlikely that anyone in the interim government will do the same. Another very important stabilizing factor in the relationship is the growing confidence and engagement of the Bangladeshi diaspora in the United States, many of whom were in the forefront of the global effort to restore democracy in their homeland.
Bangladesh’s foreign policy team, to include a new ambassador in Washington, has an opportunity to help set the tone for the bilateral relationship with the US going forward, based on mutual respect and understanding. Chief Advisor Yunus’ warm congratulatory message to President-elect Trump was an important first step in this engagement.
My advice to all those in Dhaka engaged in thinking about the US relationship is to stay the course, or in the words of our British friends, “Keep calm and carry on.”
Jon Danilowicz is an Independent Foreign Policy Analyst and Retired Senior Foreign Service Officer.
