Conservative America woke up after a long slumber and elected a twice impeached, and criminally indicted person as President of the United States, ditching the second female presidential candidate in US history.
In his relentless pursuit of the White House, Donald Trump took to every means to provoke, attack, or even intimidate his perceived enemies and to attract millions to his fold with his made-up claims of dangers to the country, starting from illegal migration to a falling economy and breakdown of law and order. His limitless accusations and portrayal of victimhood for criminal and civil cases against him created more support from his loyal fans as days went by. In fact, he treated each federal indictment against him as a badge of honour and used it to draw voter sympathy, and he succeeded.
But did Donald Trump win -- not only the electoral college (295 out of 538) but also 51% of the popular vote -- because he was able to manipulate voter sympathy? Did the voters erase from their memories the riots that he had orchestrated on January 6, 2020, in the US Capitol to disrupt the largely ceremonial vote counts that day? Did the voters condone the criminal and civil suits instituted over the last two years including one where he was convicted? Otherwise, how do we account for this unprecedented victory of a thoroughly reviled person?
More than eight-in-ten Republican voters in 2022 (85%) were white, non-hispanic, compared with 64% Democratic voters who were white, non-hispanic. According to Pew Global Research the Republican Party now holds a 15% point advantage among White voters. About 56% of all white voters in the US identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while 41% align with the Democratic Party.
With this composition of white voters in the Republican party, it is no wonder that Trump did not have to work hard to expand his appeal -- much of which the base supported. His candidacy did not suffer even as the cases against him were instituted, and charges proliferated. In an opinion survey by Public Broadcasting Service as late as May this year, overall 67% of voters said a conviction would make no difference for them in November, including 74% of independents. Nice starting point for a candidate whose criminality does not faze his supporters.
The Republican party traditionally has backed conservatism in political, economic, and social policies. These include capitalism, limited government, free enterprise, and laissez-faire economics. Fiscal conservatives typically support tax cuts, reduced government spending, free markets, deregulation, privatization, minimal government debt, and a balanced budget. In social areas, the conservatives promote religious values, traditional code of conduct, restrictions on abortion, etc.
A female does not fit the traditional image of a president that conservative Americans have
Donald Trump -- contrary to his own immoral, personal life -- hugely succeeded with the conservatives of the country to draw them to his fold by embracing the conservative values. His message that he had filled the Supreme Court (three in his term) with conservative judges who nullified the country’s abortion law, drew cheers from the conservatives, including those who are not affiliated with the party.
Pew Research states that about nine-in-ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (91%) call increasing security along the US-Mexico border an important goal, including 72% who say it should be a very important goal. Donald Trump’s call to deport all illegal immigrants, build a border wall along Mexico to prevent illegal migration, and put other barriers to immigration, appealed to all Republicans as well as Trump leaning conservatives. Trump exacerbated the fear of increased illegal migration by conflating migration with criminal acts by the migrants including falsely citing some outrageous eating habits of some of the migrants.
What about the factors that stopped Kamala Harris, his opponent and the second female presidential candidate in US history, from winning?
The first and foremost barrier was a symbolic challenge. Jackson Katz, a filmmaker and author who has written about the politics of masculinity, said the president occupies a role tied to the national identity in traditionally masculine ways -- the commander of US military forces, and the head of the first family, complicating the path for any woman trying to break the mould. A female does not fit the traditional image of a president that conservative Americans have. This blends with the stereotypical view of conservative American thinking of women as weaker, and less able than men to handle state affairs. In other words, a female as president is too risky a proposition. Hilary Clinton also failed against Trump in 2016.
Trump’s victory in 2024 will be analyzed and discussed in many more ways by many more pundits in the coming days. So too will Kamala Harris’s defeat. But a victor does not need to explain why he won, a loser will. The bottom line, however, is that Donald Trump won because the United States is still not ready for a female as President. It is also because a large majority of Americans are conservative and traditional in their thinking.
American demography may be changing and will continue to change in the next decades. But all said and done, majority of the voters, Republican, Democratic, or independent, belong to one big ethnic bloc of white Americans. Donald Trump belongs to that bloc.
Ziauddin Choudhury has worked in the higher civil service of Bangladesh early in his career, and later for the World Bank in the US.
