It’s difficult to see through the veil and get to the heart of BRICS. The core founding group set up in the happier days of a buoyant global economy was largely an alternative to the dictatorial wealth and thereby, power wielded by the Western world. No one really noticed a bloc that was foot-dragging in the initial days.
Two of the main guns have more differences than affinity. India and China have troops staring in each others’ faces but Xi Jinpeng and Narendra Modi can still shake hands with Xi’s return followed up by his country issuing a map incorporating a sizeable chunk of Indian claimed territory.
Xi Jinping has now delivered a decided snub by staying away from India’s trumpeted hosting of the G-20 summit. He has bigger headaches in reversing the decline of economic growth. South Africa and Brazil aspire to Westernised lifestyles and thought. Russia continues to remain an enigma still to be truly fathomed even as it puts on a brave face due to severe depletion of money. The country that used to arm others now seeks drones from Iran and other armaments from North Korea.
Governance wise there’s so much difference in the form of governance of these countries. China isn’t democratic and India is fast consigning secularism to a sorry demise. The two alone make up for over a third of the world’s population. China is still an economic power house with an enviable cache of the global currency, the greenback. Yet it’s ways to reduce this greenback dependence that loosely binds the countries together. India aspires. Its most attractive feature is a better educated middle class.
That the original grouping has failed to gather purchase has been best personified by picking and choosing from a list of sixty-two nations that want to join up. The new joiners include a pariah for the West, Iran fast becoming a formidable force in terms of weapons supplier and arguably boasting of the best intelligence organization.
The choice of UAE and Saudi Arabia was simple enough. Especially Saudi Arabia that seeks a future less dependent on oil. More importantly, the man behind the new vision Salman Bin Mohammad, de facto ruler is bristling over the “invitation” to travel to the UK later this year on the Jamal Khashoggi murder.
The inclusion of Argentina and Ethiopia defy the imagination. No amount of persuasion about representatives from Africa and South America holds good given the tatters the two economies are in. Yet, indicator positive Bangladesh didn’t figure thanks to the opposition from avowedly strong friend India and Brazil, whose president’s invite promoted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to travel to the summit albeit to address sideline meetings.
What China did to India is happening in reverse. Having blocked Bangladesh’s entry to BRICS, Narendra Modi has rolled out the red carpet for Sheikh Hasina, this time in the form of a dinner at his residence on the sidelines of the G20 meeting. It’s a strong message of support with the caveat of a delicate balance. Vladimir Putin has foregone the G20 summit on grounds similar to the BRICS meeting. He has been careful in planning his travel with the spectre of the international court hanging overhead.
To date there hasn’t been any major initiative undertaken by BRICS to instil confidence in its raison. There’s a lot of cash available but no demarcated projects where investment will be made. India is eager to replace World Bank reliance as one of the largest recipients of the Bretton Woods organizations’ aid. Bangladesh is also keen inking to get up, having already had to take in an IMF injection of budget support. In many ways it’s a chess game replete with the complexities of geo-politics and economics. The global depression has contributed in no small way.
One matter is clear: BRICS is unlikely to move towards climate change mitigation, China and India are against bans or reduction of coal usage in any meaningful numbers. Russia has been lukewarm to the same suggestion. And yet most of the members barring China and Russia want a piece of the $100 billion adaptation fund promised by developed countries.If anything India will be wary with Xi Jinping having ordered his army to prepare for war. Post Ukraine, with China openly supporting Russia’s expansive and extensive incursion Hong Kong and Taiwan can also be apprehensive.
India must also balance excessive Chinese forays into Bangladesh’s investment arena while keeping a close watch on Arunachal Pradesh. Bangladesh’s support for Russia and India has been explicit. She now seeks to cash in on the goodwill credit.
Mahmudur Rahman is a writer, columnist, broadcaster, and communications specialist.
