Amid an outgoing monsoon, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is all set to sojourn in India on Monday. For the other state leaders, it could be a state visit. But for PM Hasina, a visit to India brings the feelings of homecoming; New Delhi hosted and comforted her during the most traumatic phase of her life from 1975 to 1981 -- after the assasination of her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
PM Sheikh Hasina is expected to arrive in New Delhi in the evening on September 5; days before her arrival, Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted a welcoming tweet in Bangla stating: “Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, I am honored. Thank you for your role in strengthening India-Bangladesh relations.”
The delayed and much awaited visit will have much to offer. And, of course, there is much to expect from this visit for both countries. PM Sheikh Hasina will hold a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on the second day of her four-day long state visit. A bilateral meeting between the two PMs is scheduled on September 6. PM Hasina will also pay a courtesy call on President Draupadi Murmu and Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar and will address a business delegation organized by Confederation of Indian Industries on September 7, where a business contingent from Bangladesh will also accompany her.
During her stay in India, the PM will award Mujib scholarships on behalf of the government of Bangladesh to the descendants of 200 Indian Armed Forces personnel, who were martyred or suffered critical injuries during the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971.
India and Bangladesh are expected to ink a slew of MoUs. It’s expected that the two leaders will ink deals in the areas like trade, economy, energy, connectivity, water sharing, security, and defense. Most recently, India and Bangladesh jointly finalized the text of the agreement at the ministerial-level meeting of the India-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission held in New Delhi last month.
The two states have 54 rivers in common. Out of them, seven have been identified for developing a framework of water-sharing agreements. During her visit, India and Bangladesh are expected to ink a deal on the sharing of waters of Kushiyara river. The two sides will also take up the prospects of connectivity via the Padma Bridge, the iconic engineering marvel.
One of the most significant issues of discussion will most likely be crude oil. Especially at this time, Bangladesh is facing an acute shortage of energy. The global supply chain was severely affected during the pandemic and over the past few months, the Russian attack on Ukraine has added an additional blow to the crisis.
Despite difficulties, the Awami League led Bangladesh government earlier subsidized the hiked prices of energy and fertilizer. Because of increased fuel price, price of food and essential commodities also increased and load-shedding in rural and remote areas have increased, frustrating Bangladeshis. Such a predicament has naturally created some discomfort in the Awami League government ahead of the upcoming national elections.
Although Russia offered oil at a cheaper rate than the market price, the option is not feasible for Bangladesh. But Bangladesh has a better option of importing Russian oil via a third country, ie India, to bypass the possible risks. India has been importing crude oil from Russia in huge quantities at low prices. Bangladesh also enjoys a long-term contract with India to import refined oil from the refinery in Numaligarh, located in the bordering state of Assam.
There could be discussions on integrated check posts (ICP) as well. Previously, Bangladesh raised objections to build the ICP in Tripura. As a result, construction of the ICP in South Tripura's Muhurighat could not be completed. The Indian side will like to raise the issue. The land customs station issue is not resolved yet as well, which may also be an area of discussion in the meeting. Water sharing of the Teesta will most likely not be resolved.
Friendship flows like a river and flows around rocks, as Prime Minister Hasina once said. It could be her last visit before the upcoming general election in Bangladesh. Her visit will have serious implications, not just for bilateral relations, but also for the domestic politics of Bangladesh.
Ayanangsha Maitra is an Indian Journalist. He tweets at @Ayanangsha.
