“Friendship towards all, malice towards none” has been the motto of Bangladesh's foreign policy since its independence back in 1971. In times of global conflicts or unrest, Bangladesh is used to not taking any sides, while this policy was quite successful and has helped Bangladesh get financial and other forms of support from all sides, the question now becomes: Is this a sustainable motto, now that the whole world is witnessing the rise of a geopolitical storm?
Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world has been observing the beginning of a new cold war between the East and West. But this war might not remain cold for very long, as a single unfortunate incident might turn this into a worldwide conflict. And if that happens, Bangladesh will certainly need powerful economic and military allies to survive.
Bangladesh has solid ties to the world's major powers, such as India and China, our country has also maintained good relations with the EU and the US -- our nation sports robust economic relations with all of them. On the other hand, Russia has been the most prominent military and financial partner to Bangladesh since the very birth of our country. And Bangladesh has also shown that it does not want the disfavour of Russia by remaining neutral in the recent UN voting despite pressure from the US.
In fact, the relationship between Russia and Bangladesh is so good, according to our foreign bureaucrats, that any hint of “malice” will disfavour us immensely.
However, a problem arose when Bangladesh tried to lean towards Russia by ignoring the pressure from the US and its allies. As China and India are two of the closest allies of Russia, it is no wonder Bangladesh would follow in the footsteps of its bigger neighbours. Of course, there’s also the matter of Bangladesh’s strong economic ties with these nations.
Our nation is largely dependent on China when it comes to the development of various industries, bilateral trade between Bangladesh and India stood at a whopping $10bn, and Russia is an important economic partner of Bangladesh. It seems like the sustainability of our economy is largely dependent on these three countries.
On the other hand, our RMG sector -- the most vital pillar of the Bangladesh economy upon which the livelihoods of millions of families depend -- sees the US and European nations as major importers. Western brands like H&M, Adidas, Walmart, Gap, etc., import over $30bn worth of garment products from Bangladesh. So, until there's a new market for Bangladesh's garments industry or unless we create a new sector, our economy cannot survive without the West.
As mentioned before, our economic problems arise when we try to ignore the pressure from the US. It’s clear that sanctions from the US are an ever present threat to any nation dealing with them: Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba faced the same economic fate because of US’s sanctions. Even one of the USA allies, Turkey, was not spared.
Hence, If Bangladesh follows the US's direction and ignores Russia, China, and India, this will hardly still be solved.
It is not like that if Bangladesh supports and follows the US's direction, India and China become instantly unfriendly towards us. But if tensions keep rising between the East and the West -- and there is an extreme possibility of it reaching a boiling point -- the world will get divided into two yet again.
And when that time comes, will Bangladesh’s foreign policy be prepared? Our economic sustainability depends on both sides, but if the situation gets worse, we need an ally who will support us from every end. And nobody is going to ensure our economic sustainability, military safety, and food security during an emergency if we put our feet in both boats.
So, let us rethink our foreign policy a little according to our best interests in preparing for the worst. A foreign policy to create new or alternative markets for our export goods is one possible avenue. To ensure that our economy remains unimpacted, we should maintain a foreign policy that creates strong allies who support our interests at all times.
SM Asif Mahmud is a freelance contributor.
