If history is a guideline for the future, shouldn’t mankind’s priority be to learn from history? When should we say, enough is enough? Covid-19 has taken the world by storm. The latest winter blockbuster, so to speak, and simply something the whole world is occupied with.
A quick Google search reveals that our planet has been enduring and combating epidemics and pandemics like the coronavirus for hundreds of years. The major difference between an epidemic and a pandemic is that the former is a sudden increase in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected, whereas the latter is an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents; usually of a global scale and is out of control.
The first known record of an epidemic was approximately 5,000 years ago, circa 3000 BC known as the Prehistoric Epidemic. Fast forward to recent times, as recent as the early 1900s, where the world was left hostage to the Spanish flu epidemic and then made more vulnerable to more recent pandemics such as HIV.
They say people learn from their mistakes, but do we really? Mankind has weathered some of the most incomprehensible scenarios, and each time survived with loss of life being the major collateral damage, but why are we still not unified?
Why are we not unified for the pure common instinct of survival? After every calamity, we promise to do better, but except for the minority, the majority of the global population falters and goes back to their previous ways. Are we really that selfish and shortsighted?
We are guests on this planet, only transiting through life, from birth to death. The world belongs to everyone and isn’t the sole proprietorship of anyone. Therefore, I believe it is our duty to protect it, take care of it, and take care of its inhabitants. I am glad we live in an age of digital media and social connectivity, as this has allowed us to be more informed and knowledgeable of our surroundings.
Global news reports are giving us an idea as to what is being done in each country to battle this deadly pandemic. We are learning of best practices and then adapting or modifying those practices to our own countries, but that is the best we are being able to do.
Developed nations in Europe and further west are struggling, even with systematic procedures in place. Rules and regulations are being implemented to flatten the curve and the populations of those countries are mostly adhering to those laws.
Strict measures are in place to punish those not abiding by the regulations, just so the spread of the virus can be contained. The authorities of each country are working for the best interest of its people, the people that elected them and, in turn, the population is following the directives, so as to make it easier for the authorities to solve issues that have also arisen as a result of this pandemic -- issues such as recession, poverty, and starvation. It is a give and take scenario where people are unified for the betterment of the nation.
Now, if we look at underdeveloped or developing nations such as Bangladesh, the biggest challenge that we face is trying to convince the mass population of the severity and ruthless nature of Covid-19.
Initially, the hurdle was to acknowledge the existence of corona in the country in the first place. “It’s just another flu,” “We are Bangladeshis and are stronger than the common cold,” “Will kick corona’s butt,” we joked, well who’s laughing now?
The rate of transmission is of mass proportions now. Every pandemic goes through stages of recession, poverty, and finally disorder and civil disturbance. If this lockdown continues, what could possibly happen?
Let’s paint a picture of our situation. Our economy is currently crashing, and hence, we are in the uncontrollable downward spiral of the first phase. Lower to middle-income families will start facing poverty issues within the next two months, as there is a limit to how long companies can continue to pay their staff without earning income themselves.
There is only so much that can be done, and savings will be stretched for as long as possible. What happens next? Do we as a society descend into disorder and chaos?
If you look at the masses that are categorized and fall in the low-income bracket, their predicament is in a more advanced stage of concern. This segment of the population consists of those who have low income from fixed jobs or from daily wages.
The level of earnings may be the same, but the method of earning may be different. In these cases, right from the beginning, they are dependent on regular cash flow and it is very common for them to have little to no savings.
It is this segment of the population that is being affected the hardest, and first and foremost. Daily-earnings have ceased due to the lockdown. Initially, to not cause chaos, the lockdown was termed as a “holiday” and the mass exodus out of the city felt and led people to believe this was nothing but an extra holiday. Just a mere precaution which would be lifted soon, and everything would return back to normal.
Now, there are only rumours of when this lockdown may end, but no sign of when the pandemic might. The international community is confused and, in all honesty, the time frame for introducing a vaccine is not any time soon, or perhaps it is just part of the rumour mill which is used to bring calm during chaos.
Considering all the above, what happens when there is no more food on the table? What happens when the masses are starving and dying? The natural order of things is disorder, which I mentioned above.
Watching your loved one suffer will test how far you are willing to go to relieve their pain. The first step of disorder is to commit crimes to either replace your source of income or short term fixes, such as robbing stores to put food on the table, either way, this would be the beginning.
Unlike other countries, stimulus packages for the population are not something that is being discussed. The majority of the population of Bangladesh are yet to get National ID numbers and most do not even have a bank account.
Then again, if the authorities were to give monthly stimulus cheques to every citizen, the question arises as to how these payments would be distributed. As it is, the aid, which is being given to local governments, for the purpose of being distributed to the needy in the different districts, simply vanishes. There is no accountability with this regard, and at the root of it all, the poor remain helpless.
Considering such drawbacks, let’s delve further into the beginning of the end. Now that it has been established that there are no existing individual stimulus packages, no proper distribution methods, no accountability, and finally no accurate record of the exact number of citizens entitled to a stimulus, we can probably paint an apocalyptic picture.
Chaos and disorder will begin with rioting followed by looting. Our establishment does not have enough law enforcement officials to tackle the hordes, and they will at the outset be able to control the situation, before being severely outnumbered.
Recently, at the news of the death of a religious leader, more than a hundred thousand followers amassed together to pay their respects, ignoring all social distancing or lockdown rules.
Once the rioters reach mass hysteria, we can expect the looting to begin. Shops and supermarkets will be jumped upon as the primary instincts will be to gather food. It will take an immense amount of power to bring all this under control, but simultaneously there will be other criminal activities taking place, such as ATM robberies (already happening) and the robbing of other non-essential stores to use for bartering in the future.
Another possible crime which is very likely to take place is the homeless and poor descending onto neighbourhoods. As it is, they are gathering on corners of streets, waiting for people to come and give handouts. The empty streets in residential areas are common places for these people to come and flock and wait for the man in the high tower to distribute generously. The question is: For how long will these desperate people wait?
This virus is showing no sign of losing ground or backing down, and in fact, China is now gearing up for a second wave. So, if this happens, we can expect the lockdown scenario to continue, therefore there will come a point where rage and anger take over and these poor people no longer can handle the starvation and begin to see red.
That is when they will try and enter the houses of those who are a little better off than themselves. As it is, we have heard of cases, where individuals are dressing up as police officers and health officials in PPE suits and entering houses under this guised pretense and raiding and looting.
This is the work of the unemployed, or those that are being laid off and have no way of knowing where their next source of income will be. Add on to this confusion, beggars, and poor people who wait and watch those more fortunate, living in houses with the ability to have three square meals a day. When push comes to shove and you watch your child die of hunger, in your arms, where and who will you attack to even the score?
To prevent such a morbid scenario from happening, we need to provide aid to the poor in a more orderly fashion. Pinpoint single locations in neighbourhoods, such as mosques, and use those as points of distribution and collection.
In addition to government aid, individuals who want to donate can drop off donations at these designated points. Distribution should be done via the most lawful and responsible, and in this case, the nation’s armed forces.
A system, similar to that of ration cards should be developed and handed out so that rations are equally distributed and there is no unlawful double-dipping taking place. We need to look out for the poverty-stricken, and those that have lost the ability to earn daily wages as well as those that have lost their jobs. We need to take care of them and the system, before things jump from the frying pan into the fire.
This all seems very apocalyptic and absolute doom and gloom, but shouldn’t we have been ready for something like this? The signs were all there, but we chose to ignore them. Worldwide governments, politicians, and the powers that be, chose to ignore the signs and that is why this pandemic took shape and took over the world.
Surely, things will get worse before they get better, and right now, it is just a question of survival of the fittest as collateral damage will be the poor and those unable to take care of themselves, either from hunger or from the virus.
Every day, new information regarding this virus comes to light and how it is evolving. If the world takes two steps forward in this fight, the virus takes 10. The only way to beat this will be to not add starvation into the equation. Let the governments of the world pool together their resources for a cohesive mission of finding a vaccine and not just a temporary band-aid. Now is the time to be unified and fight together as one world, one planet, with one goal, or else this may be the beginning of the end. l
Mostafiz Kazi is a Chartered Accountant from the UK, living in Bangladesh and involved in the Printing and Packaging industry.
