Bangladesh’s economy has moved from a phase of intense macroeconomic adjustment toward gradual stabilization, even as structural stress continues to restrain overall momentum.
According to the latest evaluation released by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka, provisional estimates by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics place overall GDP growth for FY26 at 4.14%.
While this reflects a noticeable rebound from the 3.49% growth recorded in FY25, economic activity remains below the country’s longer-term potential as domestic recovery encounters significant sector-specific headwinds.
The external sector emerged as the primary anchor of stability throughout the fourth quarter of FY26.
Buoyed by robust remittance inflows, which reached an unprecedented $35.59 billion for the full fiscal year—a 17.34% year-on-year surge—the country strengthened its foreign exchange position significantly.
Remittances totaled $9.38 billion in the April–June period alone, helping push gross foreign exchange reserves to $37.58 billion by the end of June 2026 ($32.93 billion under the IMF's BPM6 standard).
Consequently, Bangladesh registered a record balance of payments surplus of $6.61 billion in FY26, nearly doubling the $3.39 billion surplus achieved in the previous fiscal year.
Foreign exchange market conditions moderated further as Bangladesh Bank recorded net purchases of $6.43 billion, contrasting sharply with net dollar sales in FY25.
Despite these foreign exchange gains, domestic productive sectors faced mixed conditions and lingering constraints.
The industrial sector contracted slightly by 0.28% during the third quarter of FY26, with manufacturing falling by 0.34%.
Private investors maintained a cautious posture in response to high borrowing costs, tight monetary policies, and persistent market uncertainty.
Total merchandise exports managed a modest 0.17% increase for the full year to hit $48.38 billion, clipped by a 0.96% drop in readymade garment (RMG) shipments.
However, signs of recovery surfaced near the close of the fiscal year as total imports rose by 10.07% to $75.24 billion, driven by increased foreign currency availability and growing demand for intermediate industrial raw materials.
Agriculture experienced structural deceleration as its overall growth moderated to 1.74%, while its contribution to national GDP eased to 9.32% in the third quarter of FY26.
Adverse weather, including severe coastal flooding that damaged standing crops, combined with long-term land conversion toward urban development, hampered output.
Total food grain production for the year stood at 43.75 million tonnes, missing official national targets by 3.61%.
Conversely, power generation reached historic high points mid-quarter, recording a peak output of 17,200.56 MW on May 21 against total installed capacity of 29,593 MW.
Financial sector dynamics continue to present stark imbalances. Growth in private sector credit fell to an all-time low of 4.47% year-on-year in June 2026, missing Bangladesh Bank’s benchmark target of 8.50% by a wide margin.
In sharp contrast, public sector credit expanded rapidly by 30.43% as government borrowing stepped in to cover fiscal requirements.
Despite restrictive monetary conditions, selected credit channels showed resilience; industrial term-loan disbursements rose 21.08% year-on-year in the third quarter to Tk23,748 crore, and agricultural and rural disbursements gained 14.76% for the year.
While headline consumer inflation moderated from 9.42% in May to 9.16% in June—and further to 8.32% in July 2026—elevated living costs remain a central challenge for domestic households.
Looking ahead into the first quarter of FY27, MCCI projects monthly export revenues to stabilize between $4.76 billion and $4.80 billion, with monthly remittances anticipated to range between $2.93 billion and $2.99 billion.
The trade body emphasizes that sustaining current reserve gains, curtailing inflation, restoring private credit momentum, and enforcing structural reforms across financial governance will remain vital to transition from temporary stabilization into lasting economic recovery.
