The Indian government is appearing to be indifferent over the upcoming general election in Bangladesh.
Although its envoy in Dhaka, Harsh Vardhan Shringla,has been busy with “courtesy meetings” with political party chiefs over the past few days, on Monday he told the media that his country has “no involvement” in matters related to the polls slated for Dec 30.
Following a decade of stable India-Bangladesh ties, however, the Narendra Modi-led BJP administration undoubtedly wants to see Awami League chief Sheikh Hasina returned to office.
“Sheikh Hasina is the most trusted and tested ally in South Asia, we cannot imagine anyone else in Dhaka,” an influential leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), widely regarded as the parent organisation of BJP, told Bangla Tribune.
According to him, India is not at all concerned over the election as Hasina is “effectively” dealing with the political situation.
“The election will be an all-inclusive one as Hasina opened talks with the opposition as well as accommodated the BNP to take part in the polls (so) the credit goes to Hasina,” he said.
The Awami League won a second successive election in 2014 in controversial circumstances. The BNP had boycotted the election, such that AL won more than half the seats unopposed.
India and other global powers welcomed the Awami League’s win as a viable alternative to instability.
Why India wants Hasina in power
Over the past decade, New Delhi has invested heavily in building strong relations with Dhaka. The stakes have been raised considerably during the four years of the Modi government and today Bangladesh is seen as an important player in India’s “Act East” agenda.
In the four years since Narendra Modi became prime minister, India has committed close to $9 billion as credit and aid, and $2 billion for the Rampal power project on soft terms. This is over and above the $1 billion loan and aid offered in 2010.
A lot more effort has also gone into policy implementation. Barring the sole exception of the Teesta water sharing treaty, most of the pending issues were sorted out.
The land boundary agreement is a reality. Passenger train and bus services have been expanded and the visa regime has been eased significantly. Electricity supplies are enhanced and will be doubled this year.
“No one had imagined that the relation between Bangladesh and India will touch the heights it reached in the ten years of the Sheikh Hasina administration,” a senior member of Modi’s cabinet said.
“Hasina’s government has also contributed in the negotiations between the separatist leaders in the northeast (states) and the Indian government.”
‘Silent revolution’
According to the cabinet member, a “silent revolution” has taken place in the realm of connectivity.
“India has invested billions in the energy and infrastructure as well as in other projects in Bangladesh, which may come under threat with a regime change,” the Indian minister said.
New Delhi, however, is wary of being accused of intervening in Bangladesh’s election.
“If intervene means rigging or flexing muscle for the preferable candidate, then India has never, and will not in future, intervene in the elections of any neighbour,” Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian ambassador to Bangladesh, said.
“There’s nothing wrong to expect a friendly or preferable political party to assume office in a neighbouring country. All countries want good relations with neighbours enabling trade and businesses.”
The zero use of the anti-India political rhetoric amid the Bangladesh election season has brought a respite to New Delhi, according to analysts.
“Transit for India was a sensitive issue in the Bangladesh politics, but that’s not the case anymore,” Sreeradha Dutt, of Delhi-based think tank Vivekananda International Foundation, said.
“Even the Teesta water sharing, which India is yet to settle, has not emerged as a issue in the election.”
