Experts are divided on the possibility of a major earthquake striking Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh – some believe there is a risk while others argue that there is no such concern.
However, both sides agree that it is important to remain vigilant and proactive in order to save lives.
A mild earthquake jolted Dhaka and its surrounding areas around 5:57am on Friday.
Although no immediate damage or casualties were reported, the event has sparked various discussions on social media as its epicentre was close to the capital and the shock was stronger as a result.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported that the magnitude of the earthquake was 4.3 on the Richter scale. The epicentre was located about 42 kilometres from Dhaka, in Dohar, at a depth of 10 kilometres below the Earth's surface.
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Previously on April 30, a 4.6-magnitude earthquake hit Chittagong, with its epicentre being 70km from Mawlaik in Myanmar.
On April 25, a 3.9-magnitude earthquake was recorded in the Tarabo area of Narayanganj.
According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, from 2018 to 2022, there were 57 earthquakes in Bangladesh.
This year, earthquakes occurred in Teknaf, Cox's Bazar, Narayanganj and most recently in Dohar, causing tremors in Dhaka city.
Some experts view these tremors as a precursor to a larger earthquake.
Expert opinions
According to Dr Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, a professor at the department of civil engineering at Buet who specializes in geotechnical and earthquake engineering, there has not been a major earthquake in Bangladesh in the last 100 years, and considering a 135-year cycle, a 7-magnitude earthquake could occur in the country.
Prof Ansary explained that there are five major sources of earthquakes in the region, with events recorded in 1869, 1885, 1930 and 1938.
“The 1885 earthquake, which occurred near what is now the Jamuna Bridge in Sherpur, took place nearly 135 years ago, and Bangladesh could potentially experience a 7-magnitude earthquake according to this timeline,” he said.
He further noted that plate boundary one is located in Cox's Bazar, plate boundary two has gone towards Comilla and plate boundary three has gone towards Assam, with all the sources situated around Dhaka; thus, if an earthquake were to occur within 100 to 200 kilometres of the capital, severe damage could be expected.
On the other hand, Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB) former director Fazlul Karim Azad believes that despite being located in an active earthquake zone, Dhaka is not at risk of major damage from distant faults. Therefore, there is no need to panic.
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Azad also mentioned that Bangladesh is located in an active seismic region, with geological conditions conducive to large earthquakes occurring in the vicinity.
“The Shillong Plateau, a raised landmass similar to an upland, has large geological faults to the north and south. The southern fault extends over 300km and is known as the Dauki Fault,” he said, adding that the northern fault runs parallel to India's Brahmaputra River and is a more prominent fault, although not easily visible from the surface.
“This fault caused a large earthquake in 1897, resulting in significant damage in Mymensingh's Muktagacha but only minor damage to a mosque's minaret in Dhaka's Chawkbazar,” said Azad.
Azad emphasized that despite the lack of high-rise buildings at the time, historical structures such as Lalbagh Fort and Ahsan Manzil remained undamaged during that earthquake.
Therefore, he claimed, Dhaka would not suffer major damage from a distant fault.
Following a recent devastating earthquake in Turkey, many people are concerned about the possibility of a major earthquake in Dhaka; however, Azad assured that there is no need for excessive panic.
Urgent measures
According to Dr Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, multi-storey buildings in Bangladesh need to be made earthquake-resistant as soon as possible in light of the recent tremors.
He emphasized that Bangladesh has the technical expertise and capability to achieve this, but urgent government intervention is necessary.
“City corporations in major cities across the country must inspect whether residential buildings are earthquake-resistant or not. If any issues are found, measures must be taken to strengthen the structures,” Ansary added.
Architect Iqbal Habib stated that the earthquake epicentre has reached Dohar, bringing the threat right to the doorstep of Dhaka residents, which is alarming.
“Although the earthquake had a low magnitude, the shock was felt strongly as it was so close to Dhaka,” said Iqbal Habib.
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Fortunately, the tremor did not result in significant damage; however, if authorities and the general population do not remain vigilant, there will be nothing left to do in case of a major quake, he said.
“There is no system in place to check the buildings, nor is there any certainty of the medical treatment available in hospitals. There are no open spaces where people can gather for safety. Given the current condition of gas lines, many lives could be lost in a fire if a major earthquake occurs,” he warned.
Habib pointed out the severe lack of awareness in the country, with people unaware of the necessary actions.
“However, there is still an opportunity for us to prepare ourselves. It is time to inspect every building and declare them as either safe or unsafe. If the government does not take action, we will not be able to brace ourselves for the inevitable,” said Habib.
“At this critical moment, personal awareness and government initiatives are of utmost importance,” he added.
