Scotland’s independence campaign has stoked strong passions on both sides but with just one day until Thursday’s historic referendum, it is the quiet waverers who may hold the balance of power.
Scotland decides on Sept 18. whether to sever centuries-old ties with the rest of the United Kingdom. Recent polls have narrowed dramatically and show the vote is too close to call.
The United Kingdom’s fate may rest on a group of undecideds which could constitute as few as 500,000 people out of an electorate of more than four million. They are weighing up the economic uncertainties against the pull of sovereign statehood.
With claims and counter-claims made by both sides over how the economy, welfare and health care will be affected, some voters who are most in need of persuading feel little the wiser.
“My heart says yes but my head says no. I guess it will come down to how I feel on the day,” said Anne from the town of Lochgelly, north of the capital Edinburgh. “It’s such a risk, and you can’t know what’s going to happen. When even businessmen disagree over the impact it’s going to have, how are we meant to know?”
As the campaign enters its final stretch, two factors will decide the country’s future: whether those who have expressed a firm preference think again and whether the undecideds come off the fence and if so which way.
Opinion polls show the elderly will swing heavily towards the “No” camp and will turn out in high numbers. But previous strongholds for the pro-unionists - the female vote and opposition Labour party supporters - have wavered.
Ben Page, chief executive of polling group Ipsos MORI, said the undecideds tended to be women and young people.
Polls suggest 10% or more of the electorate has yet to make up its mind but Page told BBC Radio most of them had essentially decided and that only about four percent who were certain to vote were genuinely unsure about how to. If true, that leaves a small pool for each side to target. The problem could be finding them.
Many Scottish residents declined to talk to Reuters about their intentions in recent days, a reticence that makes it difficult for pollsters and campaigners to divine their intentions.
