India will surpass China to become world’s most populous nation around 2028, with its population crossing the 1.45bn mark, according to latest report by the United Nations.
The report ‘World Population Prospects’ says the world's population will hit 7.2bn next month and is projected to reach 10.9bn by 2100, with the growth mainly occurring in developing countries, with more than half in Africa.
But, with the number of future global dwellers linked to fertility, the number at the end of the century could be as high 16.6bn or even fall to 6.8bn, it adds.
The report says India is expected to become the world’s most populous country, passing China around 2028, when both countries will have populations of 1.45bn.
After that, India’s population will continue to grow and that of China is expected to start decreasing. India will continue to grow for several decades after that to about 1.6bn and then slowly slip to 1.5bn in 2100.
China’s population is expected to start decreasing after 2030 and could reach 1.1 billion in 2100.
“Although population growth has slowed for the world as a whole, this report reminds us that some developing countries, especially in Africa, are still growing rapidly,”Wu Hongbo, the under-secretary-general for UN Economic and Social Affairs, said on Thursday while releasing the report at UN headquarters in New York.
The report notes that the population of developed regions will remain largely unchanged at around 1.3bn from now until 2050. In contrast, the 49 least developed countries are projected to double in size from around 900m people in 2013 to 1.8bn in 2050. The number will soar to 2.9 billion by 2100.
“While there has been a rapid fall in the average number of children per woman in large developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Brazil and South Africa [...] rapid growth is expected to continue over the next few decades in countries with high levels of fertility such as Nigeria, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Uganda but also Afghanistan and Timor-Leste, where there are more than five children per woman,” said John Wilmoth, the director of the Population Division in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Nigeria’s population is expected to surpass that of the US before 2050, the report said.
Europe’s population is projected to decline by 14%, the report states, and Wilmoth warned that the continent is already facing challenges in providing care and support for a rapidly aging population.
The study also highlighted the fast-growing number of seniors — and not just in rich regions.
In more developed parts of the world, 23% of the population is already 60 or older. Their percentage is projected to climb to 32% in 2050, and 34% in 2100.
Globally, the number of people 60 or older is expected to more than triple by 2100 to hover near 3bn. The proportion of older citizens in developing countries is forecast to more than double by 2050 and triple to 27% by 2100.
Longevity also is on the rise, the United Nations said.
The number of people aged at least 80 is projected to spike almost seven-fold to 830m by the start of next century, up from 120m this year and 392m in 2050.
Sixty-eight percent of those 80 and over are forecast to live in developing countries by 2050.
Even as the population is rising, the UN report said fertility is expected to fall globally, with a major drop projected for least developed countries — from 4.53 to 2.87 children per woman in 2045-2050 and to 2.11 in 2095-2100.
The rest of the developing world is expected to see a dip to 2.09 from 2.40 in 2045-2050, and 1.93 in 2095-2100.
Most developing countries have had below-replacement fertility — below 2.1 children per woman — for several decades. That includes all of Europe except Iceland.
The largest so-called low-fertility countries are China, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Japan and Vietnam.
Overall, life expectancy is projected to increase in developed and developing countries in future years. At the global level, it is projected to reach 76 years in the period 2045-2050 and 82 years in 2095-2100.
The report’s figures are based on a comprehensive review of available demographic data from 233 countries and areas around the world, including the 2010 round of population censuses.
