Republican Donald Trump’s surprise defeat in Iowa at the hands of US Senator Ted Cruz reflected shortcomings in his get-out-the-vote operations and an over reliance on his celebrity status in a state where voters prefer the personal touch.
The New York billionaire and former TV reality star generated much enthusiasm for his anti-establishment message, but in the end he was out muscled by Cruz’ more traditional ground game and saw some late-deciding voters side with US Senator Marco Rubio.
All signs had pointed to a Trump victory in the first nominating contest in the race for the White House, with the Des Moines Register’s influential poll giving Trump the lead on the weekend before Iowans went to caucus on Monday.
The loss, while not by a large margin, raised questions about Trump’s ability to perform as well in voting contests as he does in polls. Prior to Monday, Trump had repeatedly boasted that he would easily win Iowa, and he has been the front runner in most national polls since last summer. Sensing victory, Trump had mocked Cruz’s ground game in the hours before voters went to their caucus sites.
Instead of aggressively trying to convert any and all Republicans to his cause as Cruz did, Trump relied mostly on signing up supporters from among those who attended his rallies.
The challenge Trump faced was trying to persuade these people, many of whom had never participated in a caucus before, to show up.
“It’s new to a lot of these people who were supporting him,” said David McNeer, of Newton, Iowa, who steered his precinct into overwhelmingly voting for Trump. “It may be at the end that some of them didn’t come out like they thought were going to come out.”
Cheeseburgers not caviar
Trump’s bombastic style and flair for the dramatic may in the end have not helped as much as he would have hoped.
As Cruz and Rubio went the more traditional route of talking to small groups of people at pizza parlours and hotel conference rooms, Trump would make a dramatic entrance in his private jet, emblazoned with his name, and tear into his rivals at rallies attended by thousands.
He made pandering comments like wanting to buy a farm in Iowa and hoping his pregnant daughter would deliver her baby in the state. He did few small events.
Trump took some initial steps in this direction in the final days before the caucus. He appeared with evangelical leader Jerry Falwell Jr, who asked Trump friendly questions that played up the candidate’s contributions to charitable causes and pointed out he served cheeseburgers, not caviar, on his plane.
At least some of his supporters think Trump might have performed better if he had participated in a Fox News debate last week instead of boycotting in opposition to anchor Megyn Kelly and a Fox news release he felt had a biting tone.
