South Asian economies stand to lose around 1.3% of their collective annual GDP by 2050 even if global temperature increases are kept to 2°C, experts and public officials warn.
In the second half of the century, the losses are likely to increase to around 2.5% of GDP, warns an analysis by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
But if temperature increases are allowed to increase above 2°C, losses will mount to 1.8% of GDP by 2050 and a staggering 8.8% by 2100, according to the analysis.
“South Asia is at the frontlines of climate change,” said Preety Bhandari, the bank’s director for climate change and disaster risk management. “The numbers and the frequency of extreme weather events faced by the region are rising.”
The ADB estimates that South Asia needs around $73bn annually from now till 2100 to adapt to negative impacts of climate change if current temperature trends continue. Those would see world temperature rise by at least 3.5°C to 4°C by the turn of the century, scientists say.
But if countries succeed in keeping temperature rise below 2°C, that cost would fall to around $40.6bn annually, the bank said.
Public officials in South Asia say that they are aware of the risk, but adaptation measures are slow as policy-makers grapple with balancing economic growth with climate resilience.
Moving to action
“There are many priorities for these countries. In such a complex scenario it would be vital that they integrate climate considerations into their development goals,” Bhandari said.
Because developing nations are loath to sacrifice growth to building climate resilience, she and other experts advocate that countries look at making their development plans climate friendly rather than trying to create climate resilience through separate efforts.
Even as policy makers and governments begin making the slow shift to climate friendly development goals, financial losses are mounting.
Nepal could lose as much as 10% of GDP by 2100 due to melting glaciers and other climate extremes, while in neighbouring India crop yields could decline 14.5% by 2050. India’s 8,000km-long coastline also faces serious economic risk due to rising sea level, it said. Currently 85% of the country’s agriculture requires some level of irrigation, and that need is likely to rise with temperature increases, even as India’s groundwater threatens to run short.
Sri Lanka has already seen its rice and other harvests fluctuate in recent years due to changing monsoon patterns. ADB data warns that yields in the vital tea sector could halve by 2080. The island could also see a sharp rise in vector-borne diseases, with 350,000 people contracting such diseases by 2090 and 2,000 dying of them each year, the ADB analysis said.
Since 2007, Sri Lanka has seen a sharp rise in dengue cases, especially in the post-monsoon months. The first nine months of this year recorded 20,058 cases; last year, a peak year for dengue, saw close to 29,000 cases over the same period, according to Health Ministry data. There is also fear that the country may be heading into a drought - the second in two years - in the last quarter of 2015.
