Implementing the new pay scale for government employees and financing half a lakh new police jobs may turn out to be twin pressures on the economy in the upcoming fiscal year.
The government has already hinted that the long overdue pay hike – to cost the state coffer Tk15,000 crore annually – may be implemented in the first quarter of the upcoming FY2015-16.
Last week, the Finance Division approved a Home Ministry proposal to recruit nearly 14,000 people for police as part of plan to create 50,000 posts in the force.
If Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s instructions are to be followed, then these 50,000 posts will have to be created within the upcoming fiscal year and that would cost the government Tk10,000 crore annually.
According to a Finance Division official, global lender International Monetary Fund (IMF) wants the Bangladesh government to keep the budget deficit under 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
“But if the pay hike proposals and new police jobs are implemented, it would be hard to keep the deficit within the 5.3% ceiling which is estimated at Tk86,250 crore in the coming budget due in less than a month,” the official said.
The official also said: “The 9,906 police jobs that the Finance Division has already endorsed will cost the state coffer around Tk605.78 crore annually. But monetary involvement will definitely increase after the execution of the new pay scale.
“If all the 50,000 personnel are to be appointed by the end of the next fiscal year, the government will have to spend Tk10,000 crore annually. This may be the second heavy burden on the next budget outlay alongside the proposed pay hikes for public servants,” he said.
The Home Ministry proposal says that the 9,906 police jobs include 129 cadre and 1,872 non-cadre posts. The remaining manpower will be appointed for the Dhaka, Chittagong, Barisal and Sylhet metropolitan police.
Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) will get the highest number of 7,151 freshers because the capital city is the most politically sensitive place in the country.
An official of the Home Ministry said: “We hired Ansar personnel from outside Dhaka during the recent political turmoil because DMP did not have enough manpower. But as the Ansar men do not have the training that policemen get, we had to face a lot of problems.”
When contacted, State Minister for Finance MA Mannan told the Dhaka Tribune yesterday: “We will have block allocations for implementing the recommendations of the National Pay and Services Commission and the proposed police recruitments.”
He also said the planned recruitment of 50,000 new police personnel would not be complete within the upcoming fiscal year.
AB Mirza Azizul Islam, finance adviser to a former caretaker government, said: “Unless there is high revenue earning, the government will have to borrow more from the banking system to finance the deficit for the next fiscal year.”
He also said that the government will have to face a credibility crisis if it cannot implement a big budget outlay.
