Thousands of hospitals worldwide are at high risk of total or partial shutdowns from extreme weather events, says a latest survey.
In Bangladesh, more than 180 hospitals will face shutdown risk if fossil fuels are not phased out by the end of the century, a report by XDI, a climate-risk data analysis organization, said on Saturday.
The report comes as world leaders meet to discuss the impact of climate change on health at the COP28 UN climate summit in Dubai and the benefits to health of reducing emissions.
In-depth analysis of 1,244 hospitals in Bangladesh revealed that 183 (14.7%) of them are at high risk of total or partial shutdown by the end of the century.
The groundbreaking report warns that 1 in 12 hospitals worldwide could face a partial or total shutdown due to extreme weather events linked to climate change by 2100.
The study, which evaluated 200,000 hospitals globally, underscores the urgent need for countries to reduce fossil fuel emissions and curb climate change effects on healthcare infrastructure.
The report, published ahead of the Health Day of COP28, emphasises the vulnerability of hospitals to climate-related hazards such as flooding, sea-level rise, fire risk, and storms.
The key findings indicate that without swift action to phase out fossil fuels, a staggering 16,245 hospitals globally could face heightened risks, surpassing the current count of vulnerable hospitals.
Low- and middle-income countries, particularly Bangladesh, are expected to bear the brunt of these impacts, potentially cutting off communities from emergency hospital care during crises.
Dr Karl Mallon, Director of Science and Technology at XDI, warned that climate change is increasingly impacting the health of people around the world.
“What happens when severe weather results in hospital shutdowns as well? Our analysis shows that without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, the risks to global health will be exacerbated further as thousands of hospitals become unable to deliver services during crises.”
The report highlights that reducing global warming to 1.8°C through a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels could halve the risk of infrastructure damage to hospitals.
Conversely, under high-emission scenarios, the risk of hospital damage from extreme weather could surge more than fourfold (311%) by the end of the century.
In Bangladesh, under a high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the report estimates a 79% increase in damage risk by 2020-2050 and a staggering 316% risk by 2100.
Conversely, a low-emission scenario (RCP 2.6) would result in a 40% increase in damage risk by 2020-2050 and 95% by 2100.
South East Asia is identified as having the highest percentage of hospitals at high risk, with 18.4% projected to face potential shutdown by the century’s close in high-emission scenarios.
South Asia, due to its dense population, is expected to have one-third of the most vulnerable hospitals worldwide by 2050, reaching 5,894 by 2100.
The report concludes that hospitals in coastal regions and close to rivers face the most imminent threats, with coastal inundation predicted to become the most prominent hazard after riverine flooding by 2100.
As governments are urged to take action based on this critical information, XDI has released the names, locations, and risk levels of over 200,000 hospitals worldwide, encouraging global leaders to conduct further analyses and reduce the identified risks.
