The ninth day of COP30 proved particularly significant, marked by political tensions, social resistance, and early hints of a possible deal.
Criticism has intensified over the conference’s “exclusion zone” for Indigenous protesters. This year, hundreds of industry and agricultural lobbyists have also been actively involved in high-level political discussions.
For the first time, the draft of a potential final agreement includes language on the “phase-out” of fossil fuels — a development many countries view positively. Ministers from more than 80 nations, including Sierra Leone, Kenya, and Germany, have called for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, a demand strongly supported by UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
Representatives from the Marshall Islands, Vanuatu, and the UK stressed that reducing reliance on fossil fuels is the only way to meet the 1.5°C target and strengthen weak NDCs. Although Brazil initially did not place the issue on the formal agenda, the roadmap has now been included in the new draft. Many countries, however, still consider the text too weak and want a clearer, more implementation-focused plan.
Negotiators agree that the roadmap will differ from country to country, given varying energy realities and development needs. Still, all parties recognize the need for a Just Energy Transition. Reaching consensus remains difficult due to strong opposition from some petrostates, including Saudi Arabia, though supporters believe they hold the majority.
There are also divisions within Brazil. While President Lula has spoken about reducing fossil fuel dependency, parts of the government favour expanding oil and gas use. Environment Minister Marina Silva, however, has called the fossil fuel phase-out roadmap a “moral response” to the climate crisis.
Just Transition has long been discussed at UN climate conferences, yet countries are still not required to monitor the impact of policy changes on workers or to share experiences. The new proposal aims to fill this gap by calling for a coordinated, rapid, and globally supported just transition framework. Formal backing from the G77 and China last week marked major progress.
Experts say effective implementation of just transition commitments will build broader support for climate action, as challenges lie not only in creating new green jobs but also in ensuring their quality, stability, pay, and benefits. Workers will be reluctant to move into green sectors if these jobs are inferior to those in the current economy, making worker protections a top priority in policy design.
Meanwhile, the lack of funding from wealthy nations for the Climate Adaptation Fund has frustrated developing countries. Disagreements have also emerged over how to measure adaptation progress. At the same time, global youth leadership is becoming increasingly prominent at the conference.
At the third and final youth-led climate forum, more than 30,000 young people from over 100 countries presented the “Global Youth Statement,” the largest collective climate call by children and youth to date. The statement demands a rapid, just, and complete fossil fuel phase-out; intergenerational justice; equitable climate finance; and the designation of adaptation as a “moral and political priority.”
Ukraine is preparing to seek nearly $44 billion in compensation from Russia for excess carbon emissions and environmental damage caused by the ongoing war — the first time a country has formally made such a claim based on war-related emissions. Pavlo Kartashov, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, said the war has caused severe damage to water, land, and forests, and has released large volumes of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases due to fossil fuel use, cement and steel production, forest loss, and fires. He told COP30 delegates in Brazil that Ukraine is seeking international compensation for these losses.
Bhutan — a Buddhist democratic monarchy nestled in the eastern Himalayas and a global biodiversity hotspot — remains one of the world’s most ambitious climate leaders. Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay said Bhutan’s success as the world’s first carbon-negative country stems from prioritizing happiness, well-being, and spiritual harmony with nature. Despite limited resources and geographical challenges, Bhutan has made environmental protection, climate action, social development, and cultural preservation national priorities — an example, he noted, for wealthier Western nations.
Bhutan is taking a leading role in pursuing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target through ambitious mitigation plans across all sectors, including hydropower, solar, wind, and green hydrogen. The Himalayan nation of just 7.5 million people has 72% forest cover, which plays a major role in carbon sequestration, and its constitution mandates maintaining at least 60% forest cover. However, climate finance challenges are growing as aid declines following its graduation from LDC status, while mountain warming, glacier melt, and flood risks increase.
Last year, Bhutan joined Panama, Suriname, and Madagascar in forming the G-Zero Alliance of carbon-negative and carbon-neutral countries to amplify their influence in climate negotiations. Tobgay said the ultimate goal should be human happiness, health, and the security of future generations — not GDP figures or emissions statistics.
Meanwhile, the Caribbean Slavery Compensation Commission, during its first official visit to the UK, clarified that it is not seeking to “bankrupt” the British Treasury or demand trillions of pounds. Instead, it aims to pursue mutually beneficial restorative justice to address the long-term harm caused by colonialism and slavery. More than 12.5 million Africans were kidnapped and enslaved in the Americas between the 15th and 19th centuries, with the effects still shaping Caribbean societies and economies. Governments in the region are seeking a formal apology, debt relief, and other forms of financial compensation.
At COP30, human rights and environmental groups are also urging discussions on compensation, arguing that global warming has deep roots in colonial extraction and slavery.
No final decision has been made on whether next year’s COP will be held in Australia or Turkey. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said Australia will not block Turkey from hosting COP31 but will continue to advocate for the interests of Pacific Island nations. If Australia and Turkey fail to agree, UN rules could result in the conference being held in Germany — a scenario that observers say would send a negative signal about global climate unity.
Albanese added that Australia would not veto Turkey’s bid but would seek additional funding for Pacific leaders and the Climate Resilience Fund for vulnerable island states. However, Turkey has shown no sign of compromise, and President Erdogan has refused to withdraw his candidacy. Competition remains intense, with Australia currently enjoying the support of Western Europe and other countries, giving it 23 votes.
