The COP30 climate summit in Belém ended with frustration and unfinished business after negotiators failed to secure a mandatory global agreement to phase out fossil fuels. Intense pushback from major oil-producing states—including Saudi Arabia and Russia—forced the final text to make fossil fuel phase-out merely voluntary, despite demands from more than 80 countries.
Although 194 nations gathered under the Paris Agreement framework, negotiators admitted that taking strong action against Saudi Arabia and other major producers was impossible without the backing of the United States. Even so, diplomats say the Belém Declaration resets the foundation for future negotiations.
Adaptation finance delayed and far from adequate
Developed nations committed to tripling adaptation finance for developing countries, pledging an annual fund of $120 billion. However, the money will only start flowing in 2026 and fully materialise by 2035, leaving vulnerable nations exposed to climate shocks already unfolding.
Just Transition adopted, but underfunded
One notable achievement was the adoption of a Just Transition Mechanism intended to protect workers, women, indigenous peoples, and communities as economies shift away from fossil fuels. But negotiators failed to secure the funding needed to operationalise the mechanism, raising renewed concerns about implementation.
Fossil fuel roadmap kept outside UN process
The final agreement conspicuously avoided any direct mention of fossil fuels. Instead, a separate voluntary coalition—led by Colombia and allied nations—will advance the roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels. Brazil is also considering publishing its own independent roadmap.
In a further setback, the conference failed to include a global forest-protection roadmap in the core agreement, despite being hosted in the heart of the Amazon. Brazil announced a new “Tropical Forests Forever Facility,” but climate groups say it falls short of the coherent global approach needed.
Australia under pressure as COP31 chair
Australia’s role at COP30 came under renewed scrutiny. Although it signed the Belém Declaration—affirming that new fossil fuel licensing and subsidies are “clearly inconsistent” with the 1.5°C goal—Prime Minister Anthony Albanese later signalled Canberra’s intention to proceed with new gas projects, including the Narrabri field.
At the G20 summit in South Africa, Albanese stopped short of committing to reduce fossil fuel production, instead emphasising the need for gas and hydro “backup” for grid stability. His ambiguity drew sharp criticism both domestically and internationally.
Greenpeace Australia Pacific said the declaration clearly signals that no new fossil fuel projects are compatible with the 1.5°C pathway. Climate advocates argue that Australia—set to preside over COP31—must halt fossil fuel expansion and introduce mandatory climate-impact assessments in environmental approvals if it hopes to claim global leadership.
Negotiations stall amid walkouts
Nearly 90 countries agreed to draft a voluntary fossil fuel transition roadmap, but it remains outside the UN negotiation track. Tensions escalated during the final session, prompting an abrupt adjournment. COP President Andrés Corrêa do Lago later issued a public apology.
“We are not winning the climate war—but we are still in it,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said.
’Indigenous COP’ delivered progress, but fell short
Touted as the “Indigenous COP” and the “Amazon COP,” the summit saw record participation from indigenous peoples—around 2,500 attendees. While negotiators recognised indigenous rights and the principles of a just transition, many participants said their concerns were still treated as peripheral.
The Climate Action Network awarded its annual “Colossal Fossil” title to Saudi Arabia and the European Union for obstructing global ambition.
Pressure grows as NDC gap widens
The final agreement offered few new commitments on accelerating renewable energy or cutting emissions. Small island states expressed deep frustration, warning that lives and livelihoods are already being lost to intensifying storms, floods, and sea-level rise.
Developing countries welcomed the adaptation finance pledge but noted that the $120 billion commitment is far below the $360 billion required. More than 70 countries have yet to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), leaving the world on track for 2.6°C of warming.
An NDC “accelerator” was launched to push laggard countries ahead of COP31.
A summit of small steps
While around 80 nations have initiated discussions on a fossil fuel transition roadmap, the process remains voluntary and non-binding. The Just Transition text also sidestepped issues related to mineral extraction and key human-rights safeguards needed for renewable-energy supply chains.
With Australia now in the global spotlight as COP31 president, experts warn that incrementalism will not avert catastrophic warming. What is needed, they say, is bold and immediate action to cut emissions at scale.
Ultimately, COP30 delivered only “small steps in the right direction”—far from the decisive, coordinated effort required to keep 1.5°C within reach.
