India is poised not only to achieve its ambitious target of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030 but also to surpass it, driven by an anticipated decline in battery prices by 2025, according to Ajay Mathur, Director General of the International Solar Alliance (ISA).
In an interview with PTI, Mathur, who has also been a member of the Indian Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change, said global climate finance distribution remains skewed and that reforming multilateral development banks and facilitating renewable energy investments have been priority areas of India's G20 presidency.
India, as the G20 president, has invited ISA as one of the guest international organizations. Mathur said a fall in battery prices by 2025 could drive the widespread adoption of solar plus battery solutions, leading to the realization of India's ambitious target of installing 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 -- one of the five commitments Prime Minister Narendra Modi made during the 2021 Glasgow climate talks.
"If you are putting 500 gigawatts during the day, you also are setting up very expensive storage to ensure that you also use it at night. Now, expensive storage implies that you and I pay a higher price for electricity than what we can afford. In a country that is already starving for electricity; in a country where the ability to pay for electricity is limited, to look at a future in which more expensive electricity is available doesn't seem right.”
"It is possible that the future may come around if battery prices fall. The ISA's forecasts indicate that this would happen this year 2024 or 2025. If that happens, then solar plus batteries become the energy source of choice because they're the cheapest. In that case, India will not only achieve 500 gigawatts, it will exceed the target," he said.
When asked about factors driving the reduction in battery prices, Mathur attributed the decline to competition among battery manufacturers and the evolution of battery technologies. He explained that the reduction in the amount of materials used in batteries and the emergence of diverse battery types tailored to specific needs contribute to declining costs.
"Earlier, we had lithium phosphate batteries, before that, we had lead acid batteries. We are also looking at vanadium redox flow batteries. Therefore, the development of not the same kind of batteries is key in the move away from expensive batteries to batteries that are more likely to fit the need," the energy sector expert said.
With parts of the world reeling under record-breaking heat, massive floods, and wildfires, Mathur emphasized the need to achieve climate targets to ensure that the global average temperature rise does not cross the 1.5℃ mark, compared to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels.
"There is no doubt that every country in the world needs to change to the circumstances, manage the change, and also at the same time make sure that we do not cross the 'Lakshman Rekha' of irreversible change," he said.
At the Paris climate talks in 2015, countries agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 ℃ as compared to the pre-industrial levels to avoid extreme, destructive, and likely irreversible effects of climate change.
Earth's global surface temperature has risen by around 1.15 ℃ and the carbon dioxide spewed into the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution is closely tied to it.
In the business-as-usual scenario, the world is heading for a temperature rise of around 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Last year was the fifth warmest and July this year was the hottest on record.
Climate science says the world must halve emissions by 2030 from the 2009 levels to keep the chances of achieving the 1.5℃ target alive.
Mathur addressed the question of increasing pressure on developing countries to transition away from coal, emphasizing the importance of affordable energy storage solutions.
He noted that solar energy plus storage is already cost-competitive with fossil fuels in certain contexts, and said the continued decline in battery costs will enable greater adoption of renewable energy sources.
