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Eastern Europe keeps wary eye on Russia-West diplomacy

French rhetoric about ‘legitimate’ Russian concerns and Germany's close energy ties with Russia have made countries like Poland and the Baltic states wary of the ongoing great power diplomacy

Update : 10 Feb 2022, 11:09 PM

Faced with the worst stand-off between Russia and the West since the Cold War, former Communist bloc countries are taking a more hardline approach and warning against making compromises with Moscow.

French rhetoric about "legitimate" Russian concerns and Germany's close energy ties with Russia have made countries like Poland and the Baltic states wary of the ongoing great power diplomacy.

"Poland has the most decisive, assertive stance towards what Russia is doing," Pawel Soloch, head of Poland's national security bureau, told state television this week.

He spoke after the French, German and Polish leaders met in Berlin on Tuesday to discuss the stand-off with Russia, whose troop build-up close to the Ukraine border has raised fears of a full-scale invasion.

Polish President Andrzej Duda has been steadfast in his calls for unity, arguing that the West must close ranks and saying that we "cannot allow ourselves to be played in this situation."

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on Wednesday echoed that hardline approach to Russia, arguing that "genuine dialogue cannot be held at gunpoint."

"We will not compromise on core principles, including the right of each nation to choose its own path," she said after talks with her Belgian counterpart Alexander De Croo.

Russia is calling for a permanent ban on Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, joining NATO and wants the US-led military alliance to roll back its deployment in ex-communist countries.

'Memories and threat perception'

Warsaw-based political expert Marcin Zaborowski said it is "no secret" that Poland has had a different approach to the Ukrainian crisis from that of Germany and France.

"Poland has been more supportive of the Ukrainian claim for territorial integrity and less open to a compromise with Russia on this point," he told AFP.

"If Ukraine were to fall under the Russian sphere of influence in a firm way, that would have immediate adverse consequences for Poland's security."

Ditto for the Baltics, which Zaborowski said might be even more hawkish given that they supplied Ukraine with weaponry even before Poland did.

As former Soviet republics, the Baltic trio fear that they too could be caught in Russia's crosshairs down the line.

"Central Eastern European countries have all experienced Russian occupation, that kept and prevented them from EU membership," said Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of the think-tank Visegrad Insight.

"So the sensitivity comes partly -- as anything in politics -- from memories and threat perception," he told AFP.

Different speed, not direction

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has shown an awareness of the delicate situation of these countries, even if he denies that their concern is warranted.

"The Baltic states and other countries, our neighbours, supposedly feel unsafe. Why? It's unclear," he said this week at his news conference with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron.

"In any case they are using this as a pretext to construct policies that are inimical towards Russia," he added, pointing to the fact that they "are pumping Ukraine full of modern weaponry".

Przybylski said that compared to Western Europe, Central Europe has shown a "decisiveness to act in terms of direct support to Ukraine."

"But on the other hand, Germany and France are not moving in a different direction. They are just moving at a different speed on these issues."

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