After weeks of diplomatic maneuvering and ambiguous statements, Thai authorities deported a group of 40 Uighur men to China last month.
The United States and several human rights organizations had spent months warning against such a move, arguing that the deportees will almost certainly face persecution, arbitrary detention, or worse under the Chinese government.
The Uighurs, a Turkic-speaking predominantly Muslim minority from China's northwestern Xinjiang province, have endured years of repression by Chinese authorities. Washington has officially labeled China's actions as "genocide."
The recent deportation incident echoes a similar episode in 2015, when the Thai government forcibly repatriated over 100 Uighur refugees to China, prompting global outrage and sparking protests across the Muslim world.
Ahead of the latest deportations, the US State Department issued several warnings, calling on Bangkok to respect its obligations under international law, particularly the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning individuals to a country where they are at risk of torture, cruel treatment, punishment or other serious harm.
Backlash against Bangkok
On February 27, the day of the deportations, Germany's foreign office criticized the move in a statement.
"The deportation violates the principle, enshrined in international law, of not returning people to countries where they face serious human rights violations," it said.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also expressed disappointment with the US ally, condemning the deportations "in the strongest possible terms," while his department this month slapped visa sanctions on Thai government officials complicit in the deportations.
The European Commission also condemned Bangkok's decision. In a resolution passed on March 13, the European Parliament called on Thailand to immediately halt further deportations and provide transparency around its refugee policies.
Many analysts agree that Thailand's decision was a calculated move to curry favor with China, which has long demanded the return of Uighur refugees from abroad.
The deportations come at a time when Beijing has been actively seeking to deepen its ties with Bangkok, particularly over the vast cyberscam industry that has infected most of Thailand's neighbors.
"Did Thailand do it to appease Beijing? Yes. But is Thailand ditching the West in favor of China? No, absolutely not," , a Thai analyst and columnist, told DW. "Thailand is playing its usual balancing act and, in this case, it is simply prioritizing immediate interests."
Growth trumps human rights
Analysts widely view the move as being driven more by economic pragmatism than ideological alignment.
"Thailand is clearly not thinking about the wellbeing of Chinese dissidents, and it clearly hasn't thought about the near-term damage to its reputation," Mark Cogan, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University in Osaka, told DW.
Instead, it is thinking about the one thing that matters most to Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra — economic growth. "Right now, that is more likely with China than that of the United States," Cogan said.
Thailand's economy has been in the doldrums for years and is expected to grow by just 2.5% in 2025, about the same as last year, according to government data. Among the many concerns for Bangkok is the country's tourism sector, which accounts for around one-tenth of the GDP.
One of the biggest dents to this sector has been the hesitance of Chinese tourists to return in large numbers since the Covid pandemic.
A primary reason is the apparent belief that Thailand is unsafe, an image that had previously been propagated by Beijing as part of its efforts to pressure Southeast Asian governments into tackling their scam centres.
The United States Institute of Peace estimates that this illicit industry could be worth between a quarter and a third of the formal economies of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar — Thailand's neighbors.
Many of the scam compounds are found in towns near the Thai border, and Thailand is a key transit point in the trafficking of people who are subjected to forced labor at these compounds.
In January, 31-year-old Chinese actor Wang Xing, who also uses Xingxing as a screen name, was rescued from a Myanmar-based cyberscam compound after being kidnapped in Thailand.
He was returned to Thailand following a social media outcry in China.
According to Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, Bangkok is particularly "hell-bent" on drawing in Chinese tourists.
"However, this goal could be jeopardized by ongoing reports of safety concerns for Chinese visitors — or by Beijing's failure to reassure its own citizens," he added.
Strategic hedging
Paul Chambers, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at Naresuan University in Thailand, noted that this wasn't the first time that Bangkok has sought to placate Beijing's concerns.
Since January, Bangkok and Beijing have significantly stepped up their security cooperation, most of which is focused on Southeast Asia's cyberscam industry — viewed as the most dangerous transnational security threat in the region.
However, Thailand has continued to cooperate with the United States, Chambers noted. It remains one of America's two treaty allies in the region, and both countries actively participate in military and policing exercises.
"Until such Thai-US cooperation plummets, I don't think we can say that Bangkok has dropped hedging to enter into Beijing's orbit," Chambers said.
Still, others see the deportation episode as a potential turning point.
For Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies, a think tank, this case marked an "inflection point" in Thailand's geostrategic balancing.
"Thailand now is an open pawn in the US-China conflict," he told DW. "The big geostrategic danger is that the Thai elite facing US sanctions now move ever closer into China's orbit and compromise Thailand's once-famous balancing act."
For now, some analysts reckon that Bangkok won't be overly perturbed by US visa sanctions. "Thailand sees the US travel restrictions as a fairly minimal punishment," Phil Robertson, the director of Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, told DW.
However, he said that it was "somewhat ingenious" that the US embassy in Bangkok has not announced who is on the banned list, meaning the only way for a Thai official to find out is to apply for a visitor visa and then potentially face an embarrassing denial.
But, Robertson asked, what's the potential loss of face for a Thai politician or official compared to "the hell those 40 Uighurs will face back in Xinjiang? It's safe to say the Thai government has gotten off surprisingly lightly."
