If Labour had a different leader, would it be doing better than under Jeremy Corbyn?
This is an imponderable question, given the relative weakness of those Labour MPs who actually stood against him for the post, but one that will only get louder, assuming that the Conservative Party’s ongoing lead prevails on December 12.
The biggest opinion poll due before election day – from the only survey to have accurately predicted the 2017 result – was released on Wednesday night, predicting a Conservative majority of over 60 seats, triggering Labour rethinks and a spate of early post-mortems on Corbyn’s leadership.
It seems a mixture of Boris Johnson consolidating the pro-Brexit vote and Corbyn’s relative unpopularity could be enough to secure the Tories a fourth election win in a row. Despite the abnormal closeness of three of these elections, any win would count as defying the laws of political gravity.
After a decade of Conservative-led governments, Labour’s manifesto pledges of increasing investments in the NHS and public services, and a £250-billion fund for a Green Industrial Revolution are closer to rising public concerns than the government’s pamphlet of pledges.
But instead of rejecting Labour’s positioning, as Theresa May did in 2017, Johnson shrewdly appeared to cede ground on some arguments to neutralize Labour’s appeal, and severely stripped-down the Conservative manifesto to focus almost entirely on winning over pro-Brexit voters.
As things stand, he is pulling off the Machiavellian feat of presenting himself as a fresh face with no accountability for recent Conservative failings, against a Corbyn past his peak popularity.
The new poll also deflected attention from Labour’s publication of documents from bilateral trade talks with the US, highlighting the possibility of more NHS services and budgets being diverted to US healthcare and pharmaceutical companies, in a post-Brexit trade deal.
Leaving little to chance, Johnson’s camp has also followed a safety first approach of minimizing screen time for most of his Cabinet, and with good reason. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab interviewed after the Conservatives were caught in Twitter fakery charmlessly declaring “The public don’t give a toss.” Home Secretary Priti Patel can’t help making alarmist speeches, and Leader of the House Jacob Rees Mogg was sent back to his constituency on day two after making disparaging remarks about victims of the Grenfell fire. The bonus for the Conservatives of this approach has been the resultant reduction of TV airtime for strong performers in Labour’s 2017 campaign like Keir Starmer and shadow chancellor John McDonnell, and more media focus on criticisms of Corbyn personally.
With a dozen days left, all the opposition parties, apart from the SNP in Scotland, are not where they wanted to be in this campaign. Their remaining hopes rely on a growth in voter registration, potentially increasing turnout and the possibility of tactical voting.
How the top 4 party leaders stand
Boris Johnson (Conservatives – polls averaging 43%)
• Effectively co-opted Nigel Farage’s Brexit party vote in the first fortnight. Maintaining discipline on messaging so minimizing gaffes; Conservatives always have most UK newspapers on side (even in the time of Tony Blair), so Corbyn hit doubly hard, provided Johnson avoids new mistakes
• Has further double standard advantage over Corbyn in that his tendencies to avoid straight answers and use puerile sexist schoolboy terms are “priced in” as part of his personality
• Provided floating voters believe Johnson is sincere about wanting to be a one-nation Tory and not lead “the nasty party,” then the same applies to allegations of Islamophobia
• Trying hard this week to avoid complacency. Strategy of minimizing public appearances is clearly cynical but can afford the risk
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour – polls averaging 31%)
• The harm done to Labour by criticism of Corbyn for responding too slowly to anti-Semitism comes in part from the cases being investigated. However, it is the length of time the issue has been allowed to fester and being seen as “refusing to apologize” that does the greater damage. As an indicator of weak leadership, this also reinforces the accusation that his “neutral” policy on Brexit is dithering
• The above criticisms and others which commonly follow Corbyn around – being weak on defence, or supportive of the IRA – were all made against him in 2017 when he got 40% of the vote on a high turnout, over 12.8 million votes (Tony Blair won a majority in 2005 with 9.5 million votes). That they are taking traction now when they didn’t stop people voting for him quite recently is, on the face of it, evidence of weak leadership
• Labour still holds advantage on non-Brexit policies and has a lot of volunteer hours available for canvassing, but much of this may now be directed defensively
Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrats– polls averaging 14%)
• Commitment to revoke Article 50 has not caught on
• Taking anti-Corbyn stance when Boris Johnson was on the ropes in parliament and opposition could have formed a coalition seems a bigger mistake now than when Liberals joined with SNP to allow Johnson this early election. For a revoke/second referendum party, this will be a major strategic blunder if Johnson gets a good majority
• If the party fails to gain many seats, her leadership could be in doubt
Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland (SNP– polls averaging 44% of vote in Scotland)
• The most effective party leader in the UK today
• Most scenarios point to an opportunity for SNP to re-run the Independence referendum
