The race for a place in the World Cup semi-finals is hotting up, with five sides still in contention for a top-four finish. India and South Africa are safely into the last four, while Australia and New Zealand currently occupy the remaining qualification positions. But the chasing pack know a late run of results could see them make it through instead. The top seven will also qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy alongside hosts Pakistan, though eighth place will be enough if Pakistan seal a top-seven finish. This is what each team need from their remaining games:
Australia
Still to play: Afghanistan (Tuesday), Bangladesh (Saturday)
* Win both of their remaining matches to finish on 14 points and be guaranteed qualification.
* Win one of their remaining games to finish on 12 points and be guaranteed qualification.
* Lose both of their remaining matches to finish on eight points, and finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams (New Zealand, Afghanistan, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points.
Verdict: The momentum is with them to reach the last four after overcoming a sticky start. Should progress.
New Zealand
Still to play: Sri Lanka (Thursday)
* Win their remaining game to finish on 10 points, and finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams (Australia, Afghanistan, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points.
* Lose their remaining match to finish on eight points, hope Pakistan and Afghanistan lose all of their remaining games, and finish with a higher net run rate than those two teams as well as the Netherlands that can also finish on eight points.
Verdict: Should make it, but need to beat Sri Lanka by a big margin to avoid any last-gasp nerves.
Pakistan
Still to play: England (Saturday)
* Win their remaining game to finish on 10 points, and finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams (Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points.
* Lose their remaining match to finish on eight points, hope New Zealand and Afghanistan lose all of their remaining games, and finish with a higher net run rate than those two teams as well as the Netherlands that can also finish on eight points.
Verdict: Massively boosted by New Zealand victory, it could come down to the wire!
Afghanistan
Still to play: Australia (Tuesday), South Africa (Friday)
* Win both of their remaining matches to finish on 12 points and be guaranteed qualification.
* Win one of their remaining games to finish on 10 points, and finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams (Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points.
* Lose both of their remaining matches to finish on eight points, hope New Zealand and Pakistan lose all of their remaining games, and finish with a higher net run rate than those two teams as well as the Netherlands that can also finish on eight points.
Verdict: Have given themselves a chance with four big wins, but still a very tough ask from here.
Netherlands
Still to play: England (Wednesday), India (Sunday)
* Win both of their remaining matches to finish on eight points, hope New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan lose all of their remaining games, and finish with a higher net run rate than those three teams that can also finish on eight points.
Verdict: A very big ask. Would need to pull off a few shock wins and a specific set of results elsewhere go in their favor. Highly unlikely.
Possible semi-final matchups
The two semis will be held on November 15 and 16 in Mumbai and Kolkata respectively with the grand finale scheduled for November 19 in Ahmedabad.
Hosts India have already been confirmed as the table-toppers so they will play the first semi-final at Wankhede Stadium against the fourth placed team, either one of South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan or the Netherlands.
The second semi-final at Eden Gardens will be played between the teams who finish second and third in the standings.
Although South Africa are currently second, they can drop down to third if they lose their last group match against Afghanistan and Australia win both their remaining matches against Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
South Africa can even finish fourth if they lose to Afghanistan, Afghanistan beat Australia and Australia defeat Bangladesh.
Chances of qualifying for semis (according to CricViz and up to date as of Sunday): Australia 97%, New Zealand 59%, Afghanistan 23%, Pakistan 20%.
