Why might it be illustrative to invoke the Dunning-Kruger effect when discussing the global reactions to Zohran Mamdani’s epoch-making electoral victory in this week’s New York mayoral election?
Let me explain.
First, this victory is epoch-making because it marks the first time a self-declared socialist or social democrat has won the mayoral election in New York, a city of 8.5 million people.
Second, Mamdani is the first Muslim mayor of New York.
His election brings hope to millions around the world who had begun to lose faith in democracy. The global repercussions were underscored by Senator Bernie Sanders, who stated before the election that it represented a contest between two visions of New York: One as a global city represented by Mamdani, and the other as a nationalist project championed by his opponents.
Bernie Sanders himself, who became mayor of Burlington, Vermont in 1981 on a platform of democratic socialism, serves as a role model for Zohran Mamdani.
Since the rise of right-wing populism in the United States and elsewhere, people around the world have grown increasingly skeptical about the prospects of democracy and concerned about manipulation through social media algorithms.
This skepticism will likely linger, because any careful observer knows that America is not New York. New York is global; America -- unfortunately -- remains parochial.
The American antipathy toward socialism is well documented. Two seminal essays explain this: Werner Sombart’s Why Is There No Socialism in the United States? (1906) and Theodore J Lowi’s Why Is There No Socialism in the United States? A Federal Analysis (1984).
Seymour Martin Lipset, the sociologist, was equally puzzled that America’s neighbour, Canada, showed a much higher tolerance for socialism -- as seen when Saskatchewan elected a socialist government under the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF).
Yet, the US once had a socialist party, founded in 1876. Friedrich Engels even predicted that America would be the first capitalist country to turn socialist. This prediction was grounded in Marxist evolutionary thinking, but history unfolded differently. In the post-Stalinist era, America’s socialist movement gradually petered out.
America’s resistance to socialism stems from the myth of American exceptionalism -- the idea of being a nation without a feudal past or an aristocratic class.
As a land of immigrants from diverse backgrounds, it was difficult to build a unified working-class movement. The American ethos of rugged individualism also runs counter to socialism’s collectivist ideals.
Sombart even described America as a non-ideological society, though this claim is debatable -- non-ideology is itself a kind of ideology, or perhaps a disguise for another. For Lowi, the key factor was federalism: The absence of strong central authority makes the rise of socialism difficult in the United States.
Now, let us return to the Dunning-Kruger thesis. Developed in 1999 by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the theory describes a cognitive bias in which people with low ability or knowledge in a domain overestimate their own competence. The core idea can be summed up as “ignorance of one’s own ignorance.”
Those who lack skill or knowledge in a field often fail to recognize how much they don’t know. Because they lack the expertise required to identify errors or assess competence, they are unable to accurately evaluate their own performance. In any setting -- even in academia -- you are likely to encounter individuals affected by this bias.
A few years ago, I met an engineer who also acted as a kind of religious influencer within his group. After hearing me criticize certain US policies, he pulled me aside. He was convinced that the United States would soon be “taken over by Muslims,” citing a report that Islam was the fastest-growing religion in America. People like him, I am sure, will interpret Mamdani’s electoral victory as evidence that their prophecy was fulfilled.
However, their overconfidence and simplistic conviction prevent them from understanding the nuances of Mamdani’s politics.
For instance, they might overlook how he succeeded in garnering support from religious leaders across faiths, including many rabbis, and endorsements from progressive sections of New York’s Jewish community.
Mamdani has been a strong critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but not of the Jewish people -- despite attempts to portray him as antisemitic. Such a nuanced and principled position is often lost on those with turbo-charged convictions.
Finally, one may ask: Could a Zohran Mamdani-style politician emerge in Bangladesh?
Mamdani’s most important qualities include his willingness to speak truth to power and his integrity, demonstrated by his commitment to adopt the best practices of past New York mayors -- both Republican and Democrat. He can do this because he is grounded in reality and unafraid of the truth.
Such a personality would be difficult, if not impossible, to find in Bangladesh, where extreme polarization, amplified by the Dunning–Kruger effect, continues to shape the political landscape.
Habibul Haque Khondker is a sociologist and columnist.
