Amid silence, startling explosions erupted in a particularly desolate region of Iran. This occurred as Iran's most significant adversary, Israel, carried out a surprise attack on crucial nuclear power installations located in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Several high-ranking military officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a few of the most prominent nuclear scientists had been killed as a result of the attack.
This event signified the beginning of a protracted and uncertain conflict in the Middle East. Iran replied by attacking major towns in Israel, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba, and Jerusalem, which featured Israeli military sites.
According to the Iranian Ministry of Health, there have been around 606 casualties while 5,332 people have been left injured as of writing. A similar situation occurred in Israel, where civilians had been forced to flee to bomb shelters to protect themselves. While termed as a “limited war,” the implications and impacts of the conflict are wider and far-reaching in a globalized world, raising concerns among countries worldwide.
The current crisis is having a significant impact on Bangladesh, and the instability in the Middle East is expected to hurt Bangladesh's foreign trade, migrants residing in the region, and energy security. This is especially true in terms of energy security, as Bangladesh is highly dependent on countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait for the supply of petroleum and liquid natural gas (LNG) to meet its requirements.
The presence of the United States military, with almost 40,000 troops across the Middle East, on the other hand, will have a devastating impact on international trade, both directly and indirectly harming Bangladesh.
Bangladesh braces for diplomatic consequences
The first secretary of Bangladesh, Oalid Islam, stated on social media that Israel had targeted the locations of Iranian government infrastructures where official houses of the ambassadors as well as embassy staff are also present. Sadly, Oalid’s house was also completely devastated, as per social media status. Again, the Bangladesh consulate in Tehran was also attacked by an Israeli air strike. Besides the embassy officials, the lives of Bangladeshi citizens living in Tehran were also at risk due to the war. However, till now, no news of death has been reported.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, located at the intersection of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and considered one of the world's most vital commercial routes, is something that Bangladesh ought to be more concerned about.
Every day in 2024, around 20 million barrels of oil passed across the strait, which accounted for approximately twenty percent of the total oil consumption worldwide. Almost 80% of that oil is destined for the Asian region. The latest US-brokered ceasefire has reduced the concern for now but if the ceasefire breaks in the near future, and Iran opts for closing the strait again, it would adversely impact Bangladesh’s LPG supply directly.
Due to Iran's deployment of advanced hypersonic missiles in the region, all flights have been avoiding Iranian airspace, resulting in increased expenses for businesses involved in cargo importation. The strait, which is between 35 and 60 miles in length and is considered by many policy analysts to be the choke point for world trade, is currently under threat and would be in a vulnerable position due to the remaining tension and mistrust between Iran and Israel.
The straits Iran controls
At this point, the most important questions which arise are why Bangladesh should be concerned about this conflict and how it would handle the consequences of these events. There is no doubt that Bangladesh needs to take some preventive steps, as the Strait of Hormuz is not the only issue; it also involves the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
The Houthi Rebels control this strait, it is possible that these rebels would impede world trade that passes through this route by increasing reliance on the Suez Canal. The primary reason for this is that Iran is providing support to the Houthi rebel forces. Once they receive the go-ahead, they will attack any commercial vessels that are headed toward Europe, making Israel their primary target.
As Bangladesh imports 1.5 million metric tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb will have a direct impact on Bangladesh's economy. The foreign secretary of Bangladesh, Md Towhid Hossain, had expressed his disapproval of the unlawful strike that Israel had carried out on Iran, noting that "such reckless actions by Israel threaten to destabilize the region and disrupt global peace and security."
The United Nations General Assembly has brought up the matter of the crisis in Gaza, where Bangladesh expressed its worry over the Israeli aggression against Palestinian citizens.
The looming uncertainty hangs over Bangladesh
What the government of Bangladesh is attempting to concentrate on is getting the international community, particularly the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the International Criminal Court (ICC), to the table to put an end to the aggression that Israel is perpetrating.
The bombardment of the Bangladeshi consulate and the residence of diplomats is a violation of the principles of international law, and Israel must be held liable for these activities.
The situation also poses a threat to the national security of nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, on whom Bangladesh is strongly dependent for both its energy needs, remittances, and its trade. There is no assurance that the trajectory of this conflict will not deteriorate again as the ceasefire is forcefully imposed. The government of Bangladesh needs to search for alternative sources of energy supply and increase its reserves to withstand any sudden shocks.
There are a significant number of migrant workers currently residing in the Middle East -- if a major conflict breaks out, there is a risk that our migrant workers would fall into danger amid catastrophe. Embassies across the Middle East, therefore, need to conduct pre-emptive homework and develop a plan for the worst-case scenario to ensure the safeguarding of their nationals working there.
Jaidul Karim Iram is an executive officer at The People’s University of Bangladesh.
