With Beijing extending its strategic and economic reach through expansive initiatives, Dhaka faces the dual challenge of benefiting from such engagement while avoiding entanglement in broader rivalries.
Rather than gravitating toward any single power bloc, Bangladesh has cultivated a posture of strategic moderation. This balancing act -- deliberate and calculated underscores a desire to maintain autonomy while drawing economic dividends from all major players. Its diplomacy reflects an adaptive, interest-driven strategy grounded in development needs and regional sensitivities.
The arc of Chinese influence in South Asia
China’s growing regional footprint has been marked by ambitious connectivity plans, military cooperation, and direct investment under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Across South Asia, Beijing has supported transformative infrastructure from the China-Pakistan economic corridor, to transport hubs in Sri Lanka, and investments in the Maldives and Nepal.
Bangladesh has emerged as a key participant in this landscape. As of 2023, China stood as Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with annual trade surpassing $25 billion. Chinese exports, including industrial machinery and electronics, far outpace imports from Bangladesh, primarily composed of garments and leather goods.
Beyond trade, China has directed substantial funds into energy, transport, and digital infrastructure.
Notable projects such as the Payra thermal power station, the Karnaphuli river tunnel, and rail expansion linked to the Padma Bridge showcase China's infrastructure footprint in Bangladesh. These projects, typically financed by concessional Chinese loans or executed by state-owned firms, have expanded Beijing’s institutional presence within Dhaka’s development sector.
Strategic compulsions and economic calculations
China’s role in Bangladesh’s development stems not from ideological affinity but pragmatic economic necessity.
With an ambitious vision to become a developed nation by 2041, Bangladesh requires vast capital for infrastructure modernization. China's financial and technical assistance delivered swiftly and often with minimal political conditions makes it an attractive partner.
Yet policymakers in Dhaka are wary of overdependence. The financial crises experienced by countries like Sri Lanka, where excessive debt to China has triggered concerns over sovereignty, serve as cautionary tales.
Bangladesh has taken a more cautious route. According to the International Monetary Fund, the country’s external debt remains manageable, with Chinese credit comprising only a fraction of total obligations. Furthermore, Bangladesh has declined to sign a formal BRI agreement, choosing instead to evaluate Chinese-funded projects on an individual basis -- an approach that allows for flexibility and due diligence.
India, China, and the balancing equation
Relations with India continue to form a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Shared historical narratives, cultural ties, and geographic proximity anchor this relationship. However, persistent bilateral issues, ranging from river water sharing to trade imbalances, periodically create friction.
China, by contrast, leverages economic engagement to offer Bangladesh alternative avenues of cooperation.
India, concerned about China's increasing influence in its neighbourhood, has intensified its outreach through development grants, infrastructure support, and defense initiatives. However, delays in Indian project execution and bureaucratic bottlenecks often limit their competitiveness.
In response, Bangladesh has adopted a parallel engagement model. For instance, port development projects see simultaneous interest from both Indian and Chinese entities ensuring that Dhaka avoids exclusive commitments. This strategy, described in international relations literature as “hedging,” allows Bangladesh to maintain strategic flexibility while maximizing benefits from competing powers.
Dhaka’s restrained, measured approach is not a sign of weakness but a testament to diplomatic maturity
The US factor and the Indo-Pacific conundrum
The United States has revived its interest in South Asia through its Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasizes maritime security, democratic governance, and economic resilience.
Given its coastal location along the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh features prominently in Washington’s strategic calculus. The US remains Dhaka’s top export destination and is a critical player in counterterrorism cooperation.
However, tensions have occasionally surfaced over issues like human rights, electoral transparency, and labor standards. US sanctions and visa policies have at times complicated bilateral relations, prompting Bangladesh to diversify its diplomatic outreach.
China’s stance of non-interference in domestic politics contrasts with Western conditionality and thus resonates with Dhaka’s emphasis on sovereignty.
Despite this, Bangladesh has not formally aligned with Beijing’s Global Development Initiative (GDI) or Global Security Initiative (GSI). Similarly, it has expressed interest -- but not formal commitment -- to the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). These choices reflect a preference for multilateral engagement over strategic alignment.
Public opinion and policy discourse
Public sentiment in Bangladesh toward China is largely driven by tangible economic outcomes. Surveys by Pew Research Centre and the Asia Foundation show that many Bangladeshis appreciate Chinese investments for their role in infrastructure and industrial growth.
At the same time, concerns about labour practices, environmental standards, and debt sustainability temper this enthusiasm.
Academic circles and civil society in Bangladesh have also engaged critically with Chinese projects. Environmental groups, for example, have raised alarms over the ecological impact of coal-fired plants funded by Chinese entities. These pressures have led the government to re-evaluate its energy portfolio, including a gradual shift toward renewables.
Think tanks and policy analysts continue to debate the long-term implications of Chinese involvement. Calls for transparency, local stakeholder inclusion, and rigorous feasibility studies reflect growing awareness of the need to safeguard national interests in all external engagements.
A future of strategic equilibrium
Bangladesh’s engagement with China illustrates a foreign policy grounded in pragmatism rather than partisanship. Its strategy is neither a pivot nor a passive accommodation, but a calibrated stance shaped by national development goals, regional dynamics, and a historical commitment to non-alignment.
Rather than succumbing to external pressure, Bangladesh is cultivating a space of autonomous diplomacy engaging with all sides while maintaining a sovereign trajectory. Echoing Deng Xiaoping’s advice to “hide brilliance and bide time,” Dhaka’s restrained, measured approach is not a sign of weakness but a testament to diplomatic maturity.
By staying the course and maintaining balance, Bangladesh is not merely reacting to global shifts it is actively shaping its role within them.
Fazlul Halim Rana is a faculty member in the Department of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University. Email: [email protected]
