The war in Ukraine started with Russia’s ground invasion on February 24, 2022. Nearly three years have passed since the onset of the conflict, and neither Russia nor Ukraine has demonstrated a genuine commitment to concluding the armed hostilities.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in significant casualties on both sides. As of mid-September 2024, it's estimated that around one million people have been killed or wounded since the full-scale invasion began. This includes both military personnel and civilians. The civilian death toll has been particularly high, with reports indicating that over 12,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine alone.
The conflict has also led to a large number of internally displaced people and refugees. Out of Ukraine's nearly 38 million population, 14 million people have been displaced due to the war. This includes 3.7 million internally displaced individuals within Ukraine and around 6.5 million people fled to other countries to take refuge.
Ukraine -- not a member of Nato -- is nevertheless backed by Nato and European countries. US president-elect Donald Trump is supposed to take office on January 20, 2025. Ending the Ukraine war was a major pledge of Trump’s “comeback campaign.” The United States is Nato's biggest contributor; in 2023, accounting for $860 billion, or about 68% of the total Nato defense expenditure.
Trump has always prioritized America’s internal prosperity, preferring trade wars with countries over actual armed conflicts on the global stage. Trump has been critical of Nato for several reasons. He believes that the alliance is outdated and that the United States bears an unfair financial burden as many Nato members do not meet their defense spending commitments.
He also believes Nato should focus more on modern threats like terrorism and cyberattacks. During his campaign, Trump pledged to end the war in Ukraine swiftly if re-elected. He claimed he could settle the conflict before his inauguration, citing his relationships with both Ukrainian and Russian leaders.
Just after the US presidential election, former Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg who served Nato for a decade until 2024, wrote an article in the Financial Times, UK, published on November 9 where he agreed that Trump’s return to the White House is a potential concern for Nato and he is likely to reduce the US support for European security. Stoltenberg advised the Nato allies to budget and spend at least 2% of GDP on defense spending per their 2014 commitment given the current security environment. He expressed his confidence that if Europe lives up to its part of the bargain, the new US administration will meet theirs.
Although it is true that Trump is focused on America’s business and trade, he will not be that foolish to let down the image of the US as the global policeman and protector of the planet. He certainly knows that Nato is the biggest tool of the transatlantic nations to exert their power. Nato is heavily invested in the Ukraine war and if the European members of Nato increase their contribution in Nato’s budget, it will be hard for Trump to restrain Nato from backing Ukraine in the war.
In the final weeks of Biden’s presidency, the Biden administration is making a significant push to provide Ukraine with additional weaponry. This effort includes a $725m aid package announced recently. Furthermore, the Biden administration greenlighted missile strikes deep into Russian territory. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a recent statement that Biden announced his intention to allocate all the funding for military aid to Ukraine before his departure from office as the president is seeking to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position.
Trump has named retired General Keith Kellogg to be his special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kellogg, a top national security official in Trump’s first administration, has given some idea about their approach which is they would take the issue of Ukraine’s potential admission to Nato off the table and push both Russia and Ukraine to the negotiation table. At the same time, he has also suggested arming Kyiv even more aggressively to push the Kremlin to make concessions.
The key question is whether Russia will yield to US pressure in peace negotiations, eventually making more concessions while receiving fewer benefits. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson on December 6, 2024, where he said that Russian President Putin is ready for any eventuality, but they strongly prefer a peaceful solution through negotiations on the basis of the legitimate security interest of Russia. They would not accept a “strategic defeat” for the sake of ending the war.
On the other hand, as per a Washington Post report, Kyiv is preparing to sell Donald Trump on the idea that a strong Ukraine is useful to his political goal and Kyiv aims to persuade Trump that Ukraine offers a valuable economic and strategic opportunity, rather than being a charity case, and that supporting Ukraine will ultimately benefit and secure the American interests.
The situation has become intricate, with numerous stakes at risk due to the state of ongoing conflict. There are reasons to believe that several significant and influential groups with diverse interests are opposed to the war's negotiated ending.
Any war is a tragic event with a profound human cost. While diverse groups are preparing to convince Trump with their stockpiles of logic, the fate of the Ukraine war may hinge on Trump's intransigence to keep his promise and determination to disregard the pro-war lobby. Only time will reveal how Trump with his unpredictability will react.
Asif Reza Akash is a freelance contributor and can be reached at [email protected].
