Lenin once observed that there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. As a longtime Bangladesh watcher, I cannot help but agree with the Russian revolutionary when considering events in Dhaka. It is hard to keep up with all the developments on the ground in Bangladesh, particularly when one is sitting thousands of miles away. At the same time, distance may provide some perspective.
As I sit to write this, what is most on my mind has been the boiling over of tensions related to the arrest of Chinmoy Krishna Das and ensuing violence which led to the tragic death of lawyer Saiful Islam Alif. The tensions have been fueled by rampant online disinformation and partisan reporting. Governments in both New Delhi and Dhaka appear on the defensive, issuing statements primarily intended to satisfy domestic constituencies. There are few, if any, voices calling for restraint and thus far there has been little high-level contact between Bangladesh and India designed to dampen the public outrage on both sides of the border.
At the risk of further becoming the target of online Hindutva trolls, allow me to offer some advice to the Indian government and public: Simply put, India’s best interests are served by the success of Chief Advisor Yunus and the interim government he leads. Their success would enable elections to take place with a popular government coming to power in a system that would constrain their ability to repeat the misdeeds of past elected regimes. A peaceful, democratic, and prosperous Bangladesh that respects the rights of its citizens would be a better counterpart for India and its Indo-Pacific partners.
As I look at the actions being taken by the Indian government, other Indian actors and proxies, however, it appears as if the intent is quite the opposite. Rather than promoting the success of Bangladesh’s interim government, it appears that Indian policy is intended to weaken and destabilize it. Rather than atone for past support for the Hasina dictatorship and build bridges to Gen Z, it appears that Indian policy is to demonize them and fan anti-Indian sentiment. Rather than help build a new Bangladesh in which all citizens can prosper, Indian policy appears to prefer using the Hindu minority as pawns and increasing inter-communal tension. It may be that acting in this way serves the Modi government’s domestic political interests, but it is hard to see how it improves India’s position in Bangladesh.
To take the analysis a step further, let’s consider the outcome if Indian policy “succeeds.” If the interim government fails, then there are few viable alternatives. It stretches credulity to believe that India’s preferred candidate (Sheikh Hasina or a member of her family) could return to Bangladesh to rule after having killed thousands of fellow citizens in July and August. The interim government might decide to hand power to the Army, but this would not be a viable long-term solution to India’s dilemma.
The Bangladesh Army has shown no interest in ruling, knowing that taking power would jeopardize their relationship with the United States and others, to include their role in international peacekeeping. Nor would the Army enjoy popular support from the Bangladeshi people. The most likely outcome of the failure of the interim government, therefore, would be elections without any reforms. In the current environment, this would most likely yield a staunchly anti-Indian government, whether formed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or some other combination.
So, we are back to where we started this analysis: India’s interests are best served by the success of the interim government in Bangladesh. There is currently a broad coalition of international actors who share the goal of helping Chief Advisor Yunus and his team succeed. By joining forces with these, India can be part of the solution to Bangladesh’s problems. To start this process, PM Modi and CA Yunus need to talk directly -- preferably in person.
In the past, Modi was generous with his time when PM Hasina came to call and there is no reason the same could not happen with Yunus. At the top of the agenda for these discussions should be a commitment to ramp down the harmful disinformation efforts primarily coming from the Indian side of the border. The international lobbying campaign against Bangladesh which is being led by Hindutva voices needs to stop, not just for the IG’s sake but also for the sake of the Hindu minority.
For its part, there is more that the interim government could also do to ease tensions with New Delhi. Laudably, Chief Advisor Yunus and his team have welcomed international and domestic scrutiny of their actions. They have admitted that they are not perfect and expressed a willingness to fix their mistakes. An easy response by the interim government to the concerns expressed about the status of minorities is to open the doors to international human rights groups, journalists and governments. Sunlight is the best disinfectant. Where there are issues, these can be addressed.
It appears that the interim government is entering a critical period as its honeymoon period ends. It is too early to throw in the towel, however, and those who want to build a better Bangladesh need to come together now to help make this a reality. India has an important role to play in helping Bangladesh succeed. Now is the time to for a reappraisal of New Delhi’s strategy.
Jon Danilowicz is an Independent Foreign Policy Analyst and Retired Senior Foreign Service Officer.
