The American election takes place on November 5, although many votes have already been cast through early voting. When the voting is finished at midnight Pacific Time there will be more information on the outcome of some states. For other states the counting may take more time as there are overseas ballots to count. But within two days there should be a good idea of who won, Trump or Harris.
This is not official and it takes some time for a final official count to be available. Taking account of the statistical uncertainty inherent in the sampling process, the polling at 50-50 cannot identify the winner, so we do not know from the polling for the seven critical states.
Finally, there will certainly be official challenges from both candidates. Conflicts between the two parties will not end on election day.
There is tremendous tension in the United States over the outcome of the election. Trump’s supporters believe that they will win and restructure much of the United States.
Main topics include major reduction of immigration and perhaps the expulsion of illegal immigrants. Estimates vary, but 15 million is a reasonable estimate. Trump threatens to deport all of these but whether he can do so remains to be seen.
Harris would certainly reduce the inflow of illegal immigrants but she is unlikely to carry out massive deportations. But the American people are very disturbed about the magnitude of the inflow of illegal immigrants so both candidates will take strong steps to reduce the inflow. There is little generosity among most Americans on this issue.
Both candidates have promised tax cuts but no significant reduction in expenditures. Harris will increase government expenditures and support moderate tax cuts. The deficit will increase.
Trump will try for large tax reductions and substantial reductions in expenditure. He will increase the government deficit.
Both candidates will increase the debt. Wealthier Americans want Trump and his tax reductions. Poorer Americans want their government handouts that Democrats will sponsor.
Trump’s trade policy of sharp increase in tariffs will cause some inflation but will support increases in manufacturing employment and probably higher compensation for workers. Harris will follow more moderate trade policies that will also lead to price increases.
Neither candidate has economic policies that deal with the actual problems facing the American economy. The American economy is in very good shape: Strong economic growth; low inflation; low unemployment. Who can tell if either candidate can sustain current conditions.
Neither candidate has the leadership ability to continue the successful world of the past 75 years
Housing, childcare, quality education, and taking care of the aging population are all central issues of American society, unlikely to see significant progress towards identifying solutions, much less implementation. The Republicans seem to move backward in availability of medical care at reasonable prices. Their interest is to increase the profits of the medical insurance companies and the pharmaceutical companies. Harris is certainly determined to protect the current system of financing medical care.
The polarization of American society has increased over the past 15 years. There are two groups and most people belong to one or the other.
During the two elections that were held when I was living in the United States, I did door knocking for the presidential candidate that I preferred. This is social capital -- people enjoying life with friends in groups. There were major differences over national issues but this had no influence on the quality of our relationships.
In the important book by Robert Putnam, Bowling Alone, he describes how the death of these clubs and groups all over America would change the nature of the nation and he predicted what has happened.
There is much pressure towards spending more on the military. The potential space conflicts are growing; the Chinese navy is larger than the American and growing faster. China is going to become the dominant influence in Asia. The United States will not fight for Taiwan. Trump and Harris have made that clear. Both Japan and South Korea will begin serious programs to make nuclear weapons leading to dangerous conflicts with China.
Neither candidate has the experience or balance to find a way through this very dangerous world. Raising the military budget significantly beyond $1 trillion will result in higher taxes and cuts in social security and Medicare; perhaps impossible to get through Congress.
The decline in patriotism will cause tremendous conflicts as to how to deal with the changing world threats. It is very likely that the United States will leave the Asian countries to fend for themselves with China. India will find that they have made a terrible mistake in trying to get along with China without the United States (as Nehru discovered in 1962). An Asia, dominated by China, will be different from one dominated by the United States.
Neither candidate has the leadership ability to continue the successful world of the past 75 years.
This is not to say the United States is weak. It has the strongest military in the world -- just not large enough to dominate everywhere. It has the largest economy measured by output per person. It is the centre of science and mathematics research on the globe resulting in leading the world in technology. It has the best universities and is the centre of western music, literature, and art. The world financial system is effectively controlled by the United States.
Neither Trump nor Harris will change any of this dominance. There may be actions that weaken international trade regimes but that will be fixed by the next president. There may be a poor outcome in Ukraine, but Russia is a poor country and will within the decade turn back to democracy after the failure of Putin. The Chinese will become more moderate and realize that they have no chance to become stronger than the United States.
This is just one more election, noisy and rude, but not being held in a world crisis. The next four years may be chaotic but they are much likely to be boring with whoever wins unable to accomplish much.
Forrest Cookson is an economist who has served as the first president of AmCham and has been a consultant for the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
