In a multipolar world, it’s not easy for a struggling developing economy to find the right balanced foreign policy, while navigating new realities and rebuilding authoritarianism affected institutions, and facilitating a journey towards a functional democracy.
Economic diplomacy: Critical questions and reflections
If you look at the literature on Bangladesh’s foreign policy, most experts advocate for economic diplomacy as the right path for a developing nation. However, the success of such diplomacy hinges on how we answer two fundamental questions and how those answers are applied in our diplomatic practices.
First, where do we earn most of our revenue from? Second, where are we spending it, and why?
Honest answers to these crucial questions, from an unbiased standpoint, will help us prioritize our relationships with other countries and international entities. Some may argue it’s not that simple due to the hidden interests and actors at play, but it would certainly be a good starting point.
Balancing act: Bangladesh’s strategic positioning
Bangladesh’s strategic location undeniably attracts competing interests from both regional and global powers. One of the significant challenges in its foreign policy is balancing relations with India, China, the United States, and Russia while preserving its sovereignty.
The country enjoys robust economic ties with China, especially concerning infrastructure development, as evidenced by China’s designation of the Padma Bridge Rail link project as a flagship initiative of its Belt and Road cooperation.
Conversely, Bangladesh is heavily dependent on the US for export income, foreign direct investment, and remittances. American companies have also made substantial investments in Bangladesh’s energy security, and the US government stands as the largest donor to Rohingya refugees in the country.
However, it remains unclear how Bangladesh will position itself within the framework of the US Indo-Pacific strategy. The previous government's Indo-Pacific outlook has proven inadequate in addressing the country's current security challenges.
Restoring faith in national data
Have we ever asked our development partners if they trust the data published by the Bangladeshi government?
There have been instances where the government of Sheikh Hasina provided misleading information. For example, in 2021, the IMF reported that the Bangladesh Bank overstated its foreign exchange reserves by $7.2 billion -- a claim the bank initially denied. Similarly, the Export Promotion Bureau was found to have misrepresented export data for years.
These "errors" might be blamed on software or internal misunderstandings, but they have undoubtedly shaped misleading policies and created a false impression. While this may have served the political narrative of rapid development, it has quietly eroded trust among our development partners.
To restore confidence, all data generated by Bangladeshi institutions -- from population figures to economic growth statistics -- must be verified, corrected, and made transparent. Incorrect data inevitably leads to flawed policies, and it is crucial to get this right as we re-engage with our foreign friends.
Countering misinformation and disarming disinformation
One of the most pressing challenges facing Bangladesh today is the prevalence of misinformation and disinformation. The country has already witnessed violent incidents due to the spread of misinformation.
Internationally, some Indian media outlets have sought to tarnish Bangladesh’s image and complicate matters for the ruling interim government by broadcasting misleading videos that falsely depict attacks on temples and Hindu minorities. These reports have been debunked by fact-checking organizations.
To counter these threats effectively, it is essential to develop clear messaging and strong local narratives as part of a cohesive policy. Strategic narrative approaches to combat disinformation must be prioritized to support foreign policy goals. Misinformation can lead to distorted perceptions, ultimately resulting in poor decision-making.
Identity and perception: Narrative at risk
Throughout Bangladesh’s history, there have been groups actively attempting to portray the rise of Islamic fundamentalism within the nation. This narrative often aims to solicit Western support by fostering Islamophobia.
Notably, Bangladesh’s constitution sends mixed signals; while it upholds secularism as a fundamental principle of state policy, it also designates Islam as the state religion.
Maintaining an image of a peaceful, moderate Muslim society in the face of malign influences and international propaganda presents a significant challenge.
Bangladesh must remain committed to crafting an independent foreign policy that safeguards its sovereignty, while promoting its economic and security interests
India-Bangladesh security tensions: As you sow, so shall you reap
Bangladesh is nearly encircled by its larger neighbour, India. Anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh has arguably reached unprecedented levels. The perception of India among the Bangladeshi public has been significantly tarnished due to India’s unwavering support for Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian regime.
Recently, there has been a surge in rhetoric regarding Bangladeshi “infiltrators” from prominent leaders of the BJP, including Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which Bangladesh has vehemently protested, deeming it "highly deplorable." Additionally, the Indian Defense Minister's directive to military leadership to evaluate the situation in Bangladesh and remain prepared also “surprised” the nation.
While using military threats to sway Bangladeshi decision-makers is not a new tactic for India, it remains a point of concern.
In his recently published book, India’s Near East: A New History, Avinash Paliwal, discusses how the Indian government leveraged the threat of military intervention to safeguard Sheikh Hasina during the 2009 BDR mutiny, even lobbying the US, Britain, Japan, and China on her behalf.
Furthermore, the implications of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) continue to be a significant concern for Bangladesh.
Rohingya crisis: A ticking time bomb
In the past seven years, efforts to facilitate repatriation, including mediation by China and the so-called cooperation of the Myanmar junta, have not produced any positive results. With the Arakan Army now in control of Rakhine State, there is a pressing need to reassess the Bangladesh government’s engagement strategy.
Considering the regional implications, the failure to involve India in repatriation discussions represents a missed opportunity, especially since India is also hosting a number of Rohingya refugees. Furthermore, the previous trilateral approach hindered the effective involvement of the UN, the US, and Western allies in the repatriation process.
Energy security: Navigating challenges and opportunities
As Bangladesh's economy continues to grow, so does its demand for energy. Two US-based companies, Chevron and Excelerate, are crucial players in addressing this demand, with Chevron supplying 55% of the country’s total daily gas production and Excelerate serving as a key LNG supplier.
However, the ambitious $12.65bn Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) project, backed by Russia, raises concerns about its technical and financial feasibility for Bangladesh. The country currently lacks the necessary expertise in nuclear energy safety and waste management. Recently, Russia has indicated it cannot extend the loan disbursement period unless outstanding payments are settled.
While significant opportunities exist, Bangladesh remains in the bidding phase for exploring oil and gas reserves in the Bay of Bengal. As domestic sources fall short, securing stable energy supplies becomes a critical foreign policy priority.
Additionally, the nation is working toward a transition to renewable energy, a shift that necessitates international partnerships, investments, and technology transfers -- all of which present their own diplomatic challenges.
Conclusion
As Bangladesh navigates its future, the country must address its foreign policy challenges with strategic foresight. Bangladesh must remain committed to crafting an independent foreign policy that safeguards its sovereignty, while promoting its economic and security interests. Only through a comprehensive and balanced approach can Bangladesh truly thrive on the global stage.
Mohammad Mahabubur Rahman is a Communications Specialist and International Relations Analyst. He was a Fulbright Hubert H Humphrey Fellow at the University of Maryland.
