The American election this year is one month away and is widely believed to be critical for the future of the United States, the Western alliance, and the emerging geo-political framework upon which hangs the potential for war and peace. The public discussions exaggerate the risks and dangers, but a little worry leads to a focus on this remarkable election.
This series begins with a prediction of the results one month from the election.
President: Harris defeats Trump both in a count of the votes and in the Electoral College.
House of Representatives: Democrats defeat Republicans with a spread of 7 (D221-R214). The results of the House are more or less linked with the outcome of the vote in the presidential election.
Senate: Republicans defeat Democrats (R102-D98). The Senate outcome is a lot of particular contests and only one-third of the senators are elected every two years, so the outcome for the Senate is largely independent of the voting for the president.
Trump will claim the election was fraudulent and will call for protests and recounts as he did in 2020. Many court cases will be lodged. The United States faces a long tough legal battle. The outcome of this legal conflict is impossible to predict. The 2000 election was decided by the intervention of the Supreme Court in favour of Bush. The current Supreme Court is even more conservative.
Harris’s support will increase sharply in late October. It became clear that there is a growing disgust with the abusive language that Trump and Vance use against Harris. Women in particular find the cruel, explicit sexual language sign of a crudeness signaling the need for self-protection from such behaviour. The stories of Trump’s abuse of women and his crudeness are having an impact.
One wonders what kind of men Trump and Vance are. As for Trump, his whole life has been filled with lies, cheating, and failure. His father repeatedly bailed him out of failed real estate projects. Trump ultimately gained success as a television personality, but this is only after a long string of business failures covered with lies and misrepresentation. He is a failure as a real estate developer. He is no patriot, he has no manners other than as a crude thug, and his only interest in religion is selling bibles.
There are men like this who lie, exaggerate, and pretend to be tough and masculine. In fact, they are frightened little men without courage. No one has taught them the values of integrity. Trump’s mentor Roy Cohen first emerged to the public when he was a lawyer for Senator McCarthy, the notorious liar, drunk, and fraudulent communist-hunter. Trump learned from him how to avoid following the law, to abuse everyone to get your way, and that you can get away with anything if you are obnoxious enough and deny every wrong-doing. Trump was Roy Cohen’s best pupil.
Vance, who spent four years as a marine, has apparently learned nothing of integrity nor the guidelines by which patriots live. Trump of course scoffs at the very thought of patriotism. In his eyes the patriot is a fool. These are values which for most Americans are beyond comprehension.
Vance is a more complicated man than Trump. Although he has no allegiance to the truth, this reflects some inner sense of self-deprecation. There is a personality disturbance that is revealed in his extraordinary book Hillbilly Elegy.
The book tells the story of a young man who lived in rural America and was brought up in a chaotic environment. His mother was a drug addict regularly changing the man with whom she lived. His grandmother was a powerful personality, an alcoholic who nevertheless looked after Vance. His large extended family provided a framework for a life of survival, but not of principle.
Vance clearly has his eyes on becoming president. He wants Trump to win, putting him in a strong position to run for president in the next election. Even if Trump loses, Vance’s efforts will raise his image in the Republican party. That ambition leads him to go all out to help Trump win the election, including lying and making up wild stories that he believes will help Trump’ s chances. His motive is clear, but its effectiveness is uncertain.
What is the basis of my predictions about the election? First the public election forecast models of The New York Times and the Economist both have Harris winning, but by a narrow margin.
Second, I believe in their inner thoughts that the American people recognize Trump as the mentally ill person that he is. No one wants to say this as it brings howls of objection from his supporters, but I think it is completely plausible. The objective reality is that he is mentally disturbed and seems increasingly deranged the more he talks and spews forth his silly ideas. Trump is a sad human being who lives in an imaginary world that brings him great pain. Poor guy. He should be receiving medical care.
Third, elections in America are won on the effectiveness of the local organizations that get voters to the correct place to vote. The Democrats have more money and better ground programs to get their voters to the booth on election day. The Republicans, on the other hand, are trying to reduce the number of voters.
Forrest Cookson is an economist who has served as the first president of AmCham and has been a consultant for the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
