The flooding crisis across South Asia has reached unprecedented levels, and urgent action is critical to mitigate the escalating humanitarian and economic toll. The underdeveloped infrastructure and inadequate flood management systems are unable to handle such conditions exacerbated by climate change.
This region's vulnerability to flooding has worsened over time, with impacts becoming more frequent and intense. According to the United Nations, over 40 million people in South Asia are affected by flooding annually, resulting in substantial economic and social losses.
The latest data from Moody’s highlights the gravity of this crisis, with 40% of South Asia’s population at risk of inland flooding. In India alone, 622.1 million people are vulnerable to inland flooding, making it the most exposed country in the world. This vulnerability is particularly acute given that South Asia faces a 1% annual probability of severe flooding at a 100-year return level, according to the report. This means that catastrophic floods, which should only occur once in a century, are now becoming annual threats in many areas.
Climate change is undeniably the principal driver of South Asia’s worsening flood crises. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has linked the intensification of monsoon rainfall -- by an estimated 20% over recent decades -- to rising global temperatures.
The situation is especially acute in the Himalayan region, where accelerated glacier melting has triggered an uptick in glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These events, previously infrequent, have now become a recurring hazard, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions in Nepal and northern India.
The Bangladesh delta, meanwhile, faces a combination of rising sea levels and intensifying monsoons, which together are overwhelming its low-lying, riverine landscape. According to a World Bank report (2023), Bangladesh could see 20% of its landmass submerged by the end of the century due to rising sea levels -- potentially displacing 13 million people. Moreover, recent projections suggest that the sea level in Bangladesh could rise by as much as 1.5 meters by the century's end. The loss of land will have severe consequences for the 40% of the population reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods.
In 2024, South Asia faced one of its most devastating flood seasons in history. India, for instance, experienced catastrophic floods that affected over 10 million people, with 192 deaths reported in Assam alone. The Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) estimates that without serious flood mitigation efforts, flood-related damages to agriculture could surpass $15 billion annually by 2030.
Bangladesh witnessed the displacement of 2 million people, with over 367,000 homes destroyed. The World Bank has warned that without enhanced flood resilience, 5.3 million Bangladeshis could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2050.
In Nepal, 193 people lost their lives due to floods, and 12,000 households were uprooted. These numbers reflect the growing severity of the floods, which are decimating entire communities and destabilizing economies.
Pakistan and Afghanistan, two nations already beleaguered by political and economic instability, have been particularly hard-hit by recent floods. In 2022, Pakistan experienced its worst flooding in history, affecting 33 million people and displacing 8 million. The floods led to 1,700 deaths and caused economic damage amounting to a staggering $30 billion. Crops were decimated -- 45% of Pakistan’s agricultural lands were submerged -- exacerbating food insecurity in rural regions.
In 2024, Pakistan continued to experience severe flooding due to accelerated glacial melting and unpredictable monsoon patterns. Afghanistan, in 2023, faced similarly severe flooding, which claimed over 1,000 lives and destroyed significant portions of its agricultural land -- critical for a country where 80% of the population relies on farming. The compounded effect of political turmoil and environmental hazards has left Afghanistan in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
Improved transboundary water management, including data sharing and coordinated dam releases, could significantly mitigate flood damage. The economic argument for investing in climate-resilient infrastructure is undeniable. The World Bank estimates that for every $1 invested in disaster resilience, there is a $6 return in reduced recovery costs. Despite the obvious benefits, South Asian nations continue to underinvest in critical infrastructure, such as embankments, flood-resistant housing, and improved drainage systems.
The percentage of people vulnerable to flooding across South Asia will continue to rise sharply between 2024 and 2030. While other regions, such as Europe and northern Asia, are expected to see a dip in flood vulnerability after 2025, South Asia’s susceptibility is projected to keep climbing, driven by a complex interplay of climate change, urbanization, and land-use practices.
Sachi Satapathy is the Director, AF Development Care, New Delhi, India. Email: [email protected]
