For over a century, fossil fuels have powered our cars, businesses, and homes. Coal, crude oil, and natural gas, derived from the fossilized remains of ancient plants and animals, containing high carbon levels. The extraction and burning of these fuels harm both the environment and our health.
Bangladesh ranks seventh among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change, primarily due to the carbon emissions from developed nations over the past two centuries of industrialization. Reliance on imported fossil fuels has proven costly for Bangladesh. The international market's price volatility and the recent devaluation of the Bangladeshi taka by Tk7 per US dollar in May 2024 have further increased fossil fuel import costs.
The reduction of fossil fuels and their rising costs have accelerated the growth of renewable energy to ensure energy security and lower carbon dioxide emissions.
Maximizing capacity: Plans and challenges
According to the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP 2023), Bangladesh has set an ambitious goal to transform its energy sector by installing 37.8 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity by 2050. This major expansion will focus primarily on utilizing water, solar, and wind energy, under the advanced technology scenario (ATS). This visionary approach demonstrates Bangladesh's dedication to reducing its carbon footprint and advancing towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly energy system.
IEPMP estimates that achieving this significant increase in renewable energy capacity, without incorporating energy storage systems, will require an investment of approximately $37.4 billion. This substantial financial commitment highlights the scale of the transformation needed. The investment will likely be directed towards developing hydro-electric power plants, solar farms, wind turbines, and the related infrastructure to support this extensive deployment of renewable energy sources.
However, the plan also outlines an alternative scenario, known as the in-between growth scenario. This more conservative projection estimates that renewable energy capacity might only reach 26.2GW by 2050. Under this scenario, the country may fall short of its more ambitious targets, achieving around 17% of its energy needs from renewable sources, resulting in less than 20GW of installed capacity.
The contrast between the advanced technology scenario and the in-between growth scenario underscores the challenges and uncertainties inherent in long-term energy planning. Factors such as technological advancements, investment flows, policy support, and global economic conditions will be crucial in determining which scenario will materialize. Despite these challenges, the existence of the plan emphasizes Bangladesh's proactive stance in addressing energy security and environmental sustainability.
Successfully implementing the IEPMP will not only reduce Bangladesh's dependence on fossil fuels but also significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to global climate change mitigation efforts. Additionally, it will position Bangladesh as a regional leader in renewable energy, demonstrating the potential for developing countries to adopt green energy solutions effectively.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) estimates that installing 20GW of renewable energy capacity with battery storage for 30% of the capacity for four-hour backup may require around $1bn annually through 2050.
In the proposed 2024-25 fiscal year budget, the government has reduced the allocation for the Ministry of Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources by approximately 15%. This year, Tk30,317 crore only has been allocated -- down from Tk34,819 crore in the previous fiscal year. In the 8th Five-Year Plan, the Bangladesh government aimed to achieve at least 10% renewable energy by 2025, but the current figure stands at only 3%. Given the previous level of progress, it is unrealistic for the government to reach its target of 40% renewable energy by 2041.
Renewable energy sources can be replenished quickly, ensuring sustainability.
Bangladesh's journey with renewable energy began in 1957 with the construction of its first hydro-electric power station on the Karnaphuli River at Kaptai in Chittagong. In October 1988, two 50 MW Kaplan-type turbines were added, increasing the total power generation capacity to 230 MW.
Riverine veins
According to a report by the National River Conservation Commission (NRCC) on September 24, 2023, the country has 1,008 rivers, including tributaries, spanning about 22,155 km. Researchers suggest there are over 1,600 rivers, with at least 600 more not listed by the Water Development Board and NRCC. The River Commission, following a High Court judgment, stressed that rivers should be identified per CS records.
Much of Bangladesh's land is formed by alluvial soil deposited by its numerous rivers, making it a deltaic region. Human civilization, culture, and history have flourished around these rivers. However, the rivers are deteriorating due to international and internal factors.
There are 54 transboundary rivers between Bangladesh and India, making equitable water distribution a critical issue for Bangladesh. These rivers are essential for the country's agriculture, livelihood, and overall ecological balance. However, the upstream countries, particularly India, have controlled the water flow by constructing dams and barrages at their borders, significantly reducing the flow of water into Bangladesh. This obstruction has led to the drying up of many Bangladeshi rivers, especially during the dry season when the water is most needed.
During the dry season, the situation becomes dire as some riverbeds in Bangladesh dry up to the extent that they are used for cultivation. This temporary use of riverbeds for farming highlights the severity of water scarcity. The impact of this water crisis is far-reaching and devastating. Over the past 50 years, Bangladesh has seen the disappearance of approximately 500 rivers and 8,000 canals. This loss is not only a blow to the country's natural water resources but also a threat to biodiversity and the communities that rely on these water bodies for their daily lives.
The remaining water bodies in Bangladesh are also under severe threat. Continuous misuse, pollution, and encroachment have placed these rivers and canals at risk. People who once depended on these rivers for their livelihood, such as fishermen and farmers, are now migrating to urban areas like the capital city Dhaka in search of alternative income opportunities. This migration is contributing to Dhaka's already severe pollution problems and straining the city's infrastructure and services.
Influential groups, often backed by political and economic power, are occupying rivers and converting them into commercial structures. The commercialization of riverbanks and riverbeds further exacerbate the loss of water bodies. These actions are often carried out with little regard for environmental regulations and sustainability, driven by short-term gains at the expense of long-term ecological health.
Mismanagement: More must be done
The crisis of rivers in Bangladesh is also a result of negligence and mismanagement. Government authorities and agencies have failed to enforce laws and policies designed to protect these vital water resources. Illegal encroachments continue unchecked, and pollution from industrial, agricultural, and domestic sources further degrades the quality of water. Most of the country's water bodies for instance, rivers, canals, and wetlands are facing an existential crisis, which threatens the very foundation of life and culture in Bangladesh.
To address these pressing issues, there must be a comprehensive approach that includes both national and international cooperation. Domestically, programs need to be initiated to protect rivers from pollution and illegal encroachment. This includes strict enforcement of environmental laws, restoration projects for degraded rivers and canals, and sustainable management practices. Education and awareness campaigns can also play a crucial role in engaging the public and promoting the importance of preserving water bodies.
On an international level, Bangladesh must engage in diplomatic efforts to secure equitable water-sharing agreements with upstream countries. This includes leveraging international forums and conventions to advocate for fair distribution of water and the protection of transboundary rivers. It is imperative to establish legal frameworks and bilateral agreements that ensure the sustainable management of shared water resources.
The High Court of Bangladesh has recognized rivers as living entities, granting them legal rights and acknowledging their intrinsic value to the nation's well-being. It is our collective responsibility to uphold these rights and ensure that rivers remain vibrant and life-sustaining for future generations. By taking decisive action now, we can restore and protect our rivers, securing a sustainable and prosperous future for Bangladesh.
Saving our rivers requires comprehensive and sustained efforts. This includes preventing pollution, stopping illegal encroachments, and ensuring the equitable distribution of water resources -- particularly from transboundary rivers shared with neighbouring countries. Implementing strict regulations and enforcement mechanisms, along with community engagement and education, is essential to protect these vital water bodies. River restoration projects and the promotion of sustainable agricultural and industrial practices can also contribute significantly to this goal.
The potential of Hydro-power
Hydro-power is a key renewable energy source. Once a hydro-electric plant is built, it operates with minimal energy consumption and emits significantly less greenhouse gas compared to fossil fuel plants. Hydro-power generates 20% of the world's total electricity and 88% of renewable electricity.
We can rationally plan new hydro-power projects if we have sufficient water in our rivers. The availability of water is fundamental to harnessing the potential of hydro-power, a crucial component of renewable energy. Hydro-power not only provides a reliable and sustainable source of energy but also plays a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change. Therefore, to achieve the necessary hydro-power for Bangladesh's transition to 100% renewable energy, we must prioritize the preservation and revitalization of our rivers.
Realizing the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Looking ahead, we should aim to see the full realization of the government's Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. This long-term vision encompasses strategies to manage water resources sustainably, protect the environment, and promote economic development. The Delta Plan aims to make Bangladesh more resilient to the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, increased flooding, and extreme weather events. By focusing on integrated water resource management, the plan seeks to ensure that rivers continue to flow, supporting both human and ecological needs.
Mitigating climate change and reducing carbon emissions requires a 100% transition to renewable energy for a sustainable future. This transition involves not only developing hydro-power but also expanding other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. The shift away from fossil fuels will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to global efforts to combat climate change. Renewable energy sources are also more sustainable and less damaging to the environment, providing a cleaner and healthier future for all.
Just as our rivers were full of water 100 years ago, we have a responsibility to ensure that they remain vibrant and life-sustaining for the generations to come. Future generations will remember us for our efforts for protecting these rivers, allowing them to inherit flowing rivers.
Mamun Kabir is Manager, Communications and Advocacy, Waterkeepers Bangladesh.
