There were multiple instances in the past when the founder Chairman of Jatiyo Party, HM Ershad, was criticized for changing his opinions and crucial party decisions overnight. In fact, he was subjected to mockery due to allegedly being two-faced on several issues of national interest.
As much as adorers of the party prefer no such stain on the current Chairman GM Quader’s image, according to popular opinion, he has acted no different from his brother this time.
This piece analyzes why Quader might have taken a U-turn, from his recent bold and strong words against the ruling party, and his speculations of irregularities in the upcoming national election.
Was it Rowshan?
The faction of the Jatiyo Party under Ershad's widow Rowshan, consisted of a group of politicians, most of whom were expelled from the party on different occasions in the past. They continuously induced Rowshan to make statements or take stances as the party's supreme commander, whereas her position of chief patron is merely ornamental according to the party constitution.
In addition, since she was easier to “manage,” her position as the opposition leader was of more convenience to them than Quader.
In recent times, although Rowshan was vehemently in favour in the polls, Quader had drawn the attention of the masses, coming off as adamant in not being the perceived “B-team” of the ruling party.
So what happened to Quader all of a sudden then?
I am of the impression that he could understand that if he would not participate, the ruling party would ask Rowshan's faction to act. Rowshan would also welcome a good number of nomination aspirants, from amongst the men who have so far devotedly stuck to Quader.
At the end of the day, I strongly doubt if most Jatiyo Party’s MPs at the moment are at all willing to give away the luxury of their powers and benefits that their position entails.
Hence, Quader would be at risk of losing his grip in the party and the parliament, not to mention, the social stature he enjoys at present. He has certainly learned from his past -- in 2014, he abstained from running as MP on moral grounds, having listened to his brother’s orders, who himself was allegedly “compelled” to participate at the last moment.
Many who were not principled had refrained from withdrawing nominations and had rather become MPs from the Jatiyo Party, leaving behind Quader and a handful of other loyal devotees with no seats for five years.
Was it Delhi?
Some believe that all governments of India have been prioritizing their security concerns over a healthy democracy in Bangladesh. They look at Bangladesh through an interesting set of lenses: Islamic terrorism is likely to export violence through the borders, leading to separatist movements within India.
By now, India should be able to attest to the fact that even radical political parties in Bangladesh never gained approval through anti-Hindu rhetoric, and the people of Bangladesh, in general, disapprove of communal politics.
For the reason mentioned above, Delhi has historically supported the ruling Awami League, a party that is perceived to promote secularism. Hence, since 2014, the Jatiyo Party has been India's best choice for elections as an acceptable opposition in the absence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
It was predicted that this time was going to be no different. In fact, Quader's words in the airport upon arriving from an invitation in Delhi, “I can't say who I talked to or what I discussed,” portrayed that the neighbours are prepared to lend their shoulders to his party again.
What is notable here is if Quader is unwilling to work in the best interest of our neighbours, then the latter knows who to approach -- Rowshan, who would serve their interest well.
Was it coalition with the BNP?
Because both Jatiyo Party and BNP belong to the centre-right, they have a similar vote bank. When in coalition with the ruling party, the smattering of Jatiyo Party votes benefits the ruling party, since this is the conservative bank of votes that they would otherwise not easily be able to bag.
Shaking hands with the ruling party puts Jatiyo Party in the best of situations, starting from the oddity of having ministers in the cabinet (as the opposition), to being the convenient and home-grown opposition, which the government befriends and provides to. With BNP out of the picture, the situation appears to be ideal for the Jatiyo party.
On the other hand, because of the philosophical similarity, a coalition with the BNP would mean that the BNP would absorb the whole Jatiyo Party leadership. In such a circumstance, Quader would cease to have the same degree of control. Jatiyo Party would not only be powerless and face financial struggles, but also look forward to an existential crisis.
However, the above would only be a consideration if the Jatiyo Party would be united in making a choice as to which side to lean towards. But, in reality, Quader’s disinterest in participating would mean that the party would be led by Rowshan and be present in the parliament, while the remaining led by Quader, on the roads, would be irrelevant if they joined hands with BNP. He would be an insignificant addition to the coalition.
What is expected of Quader now?
As a polished political leader who is often praised for his integrity, honesty, and transparency, it is expected that Quader comes clean. He owes an explanation to the citizens as to why his action had not adhered to his words.
It will be understandable if he clarifies along the lines of my aforementioned analysis; if he has other points to add, or even if he agrees not to have had it in him to struggle in his old age and enjoy his position in the parliament. Whatever his explanation might be, he definitely owes us one.
Lastly, this is where it stands: Had Quader not compromised, it would have been Rowshan. Now that Quader is in line with the ruling party, whether Rowshan participates in the election is immaterial.
It is indeed amusing how Rowshan’s pro-government faction has not gotten an appointment from the prime minister. Then again, the ruling party just needed a sizeable opposition for the rest of the world to watch, and that’s it.
Advocate Saquib Rahman is a political analyst and Editor of Progress Magazine. He also teaches law at North South University.
