“I can't say who I talked to or what I discussed” -- deputy leader of the opposition and Chairman of the Jatiyo Party, Ghulam Muhammed Quader said to the media on his arrival from Delhi in the recent past. Such a tone from a politician of Quader's stature, whereby he comes off as fearful of spilling anything to the masses from whom he would have to seek votes, is likely to trigger the minds of all politically aware citizens.
In this piece, I want to put forward my analysis of why it is in the interest of the Jatiyo Party to work with neighbouring India cordially and vice versa.
The next-door viewpoint
Bangladesh is the fourth largest remitter to India -- more than $10 billion were sent from Bangladesh to India as recently as 2020. Both countries have greatly benefitted from bilateral trade over the years. In spite of the fact that India had widely extended its hands during the 1971 War for Liberation, it is unfortunate that India’s foreign policy towards Bangladesh is entirely based on feeble assumptions.
Some believe that all governments of India have been prioritizing their security concerns over a healthy democracy in Bangladesh. They look at Bangladesh through a bizarre set of lenses: Islamic terrorism is likely to export violence through the borders, leading to separatist movements inside India. However, it is expected that, by now, India should be able to attest to the fact that even radical political parties in Bangladesh never gained approval through anti-Hindu rhetoric.
The people of Bangladesh, in general, do not approve of communal politics.
India's perception, as mentioned above, of Bangladesh leads them to vouch for the ruling Awami League, which is believed to be friendlier to minorities and a party that promotes secularism, as opposed to their most prominent opponent, Bangladesh National Party (BNP), that has been in long-lasting coalition with far-right parties. BNP’s alliance included the Jamaat-e-Islami, a party whose top founding leaders were prosecuted by Bangladesh courts as perpetrators of 1971.
Having said all of that, it is understandably in the interest of India to help prepare an opposition party with a solid outlook that would seem legitimate and acceptable in the absence of BNP and others. Therefore, since 2013, the Jatiyo Party -- the third largest political force -- has undoubtedly been India's best choice to doll them up for the general elections.
On the other hand, how the Jatiyo Party gains from such an arrangement is elucidated in the following.
Jatiyo Party’s situation
Whereas Quader, in an interview, welcomed the US visa restrictions, it would not be unusual for one to ponder on recent rumours regarding a few of his party leaders being pinned under such restrictions. What might be the possible reasons for the opposition leaders to be sanctioned unless the party is deemed the "home-grown opposition"? This rumour further clarifies the commoner’s shared perception of the Jatiyo Party -- it prefers an election under the current regime, subject to an arrangement -- real or perceived -- in the absence of the BNP. This way, the Jatiyo Party, which has been out of power for more than three decades, would benefit from MPs in the parliament and, therefore, overall strength.
With India believed to vehemently support the ruling party, the scenario mentioned above with the BNP out of the elections benefits India, alongside the Jatiyo Party. It is no secret that the Awami League has historically had a better and friendlier relationship with India compared to the BNP. So, responding to an invitation by the Indian government when elections are nearing and being open to the public on maintaining secrecy, may lead anyone to perceive Quader as the kind of opposition that takes guidance from India. Appearing to give in to India’s influence would only strengthen the narrative on whether the Jatiyo Party even intends to be a real opposition.
Whereas BNP and most other political parties (left, right, and of other orientations) are determined not to participate in what they deem as an unacceptable election under the same regime, the Jatiyo Party obviously seems inclined towards participating. In light of such, it appears as though Quader himself, alongside his handful of MPs, is unwilling to give away the luxury of their positions and the power and benefits such position entails.
There used to be a time when the Jatiyo Party was deemed the difference maker -- whichever major party it would ally with would likely form the government. But in the absence of the BNP, the Jatiyo Party has lost that image in the eyes of the people. On one hand, strictly from the Jatiyo Party's point of view, it makes complete sense to take advantage of BNP's absence and strengthen the party in Parliament.
It is beyond any doubt that India’s support for Awami League would work the best, depending on Jatiyo Party’s behaviour. In fact, shaking hands with the ruling party had put Jatiyo Party in the best of situations in the past, starting from the peculiarity of having ministers in the cabinet (as the opposition), to being the convenient and home-grown opposition which the government befriends and provides to.
Also, the Jatiyo Party would rather be secure in its position than make an alliance with the BNP. Due to the philosophical resemblance (similar vote bank consisting of conservatives), a coalition with the BNP would mean that the BNP would absorb the whole Jatiyo Party leadership. Quader would cease to have the same degree of control. Hence, Jatiyo Party would not only be powerless and face financial struggles but would also be facing an existential crisis.
We must understand that India does not necessarily have to care about our image in front of the world. It is natural for them to look into their own best interests. If that means an unfair and non-participatory election with an opposition such as the likes of Jatiyo Party, so be it. Their interest in the party is genuine and is clear as crystal. Hence, Jatiyo Party has two choices: Staying parallel with the interests of India as the perceived “B-team” of the ruling party or losing everything and gracefully entering oblivion.
Advocate Saquib Rahman is a senior lecturer of law at North South University and Editor of Progress magazine. Previously, former international affairs secretary of Jatiyo Party.
