Imagine a country called Migrationstan -- a land solely inhabited by migrants from around the world. With its 184 million migrant population, it would be the eighth most populous nation on Earth, overshadowing Bangladesh. This highlights the importance of global migration, a topic that has been the focus of the 2023 World Bank's World Development Report.
Within this huge number of migrants, 37 million are refugees, who leave their homes primarily due to political reasons, while the majority of migrants embark on their journeys in pursuit of economic opportunities. However, distinguishing between the two can be challenging, as circumstances often blur these lines.
For instance, the recent expulsion of Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh in late September 2023 is undeniably political. Nearly all the 120,000 Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh were forced to flee to Armenia, leaving only a handful behind. Similarly, closer to home, Bangladesh has become a major host for refugees, with almost one million Rohingya refugees seeking sanctuary within its borders.
In fact, Bangladesh is one of the top ten countries in the world hosting refugees with 952,000. The other host countries, according to the UN Commission on Refugees are Iran (3.4 million), Pakistan (1.7 million), Lebanon (818,900), and Jordan (697,800) in Asia and Turkey (3.6 million) and Germany (2.1 million) in Europe. In South America, Colombia (2.5 million) and Peru (976,000) host Venezuelan refugees. This underscores the fact that while refugees are products of political turmoil, migrants are driven by a myriad of factors, including the growing influence of climate crises.
Europe has emerged as a significant destination for refugees from North Africa, despite the perilous Mediterranean journey that has claimed the lives of 2,500 would-be refugees in 2023 alone. To address this issue, leaders from nine Mediterranean countries, collectively known as the "Med 9," recently convened in Malta to discuss and coordinate their policies on undocumented migrants. They called for a unified European response to tackle illegal migration, recognizing the mounting tensions within the bloc.
The distinction between legal and illegal migration is not always straightforward. At various points, countries like Italy have granted amnesty to undocumented Bangladeshis. Different EU nations exhibit varying degrees of friendliness towards refugees, with Germany, under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, being particularly welcoming. As fertility rates decline due to economic and sociological reasons, migrants often find themselves compelled to leave their homeland, either due to political repression or economic hardship.
The European economy, particularly that of Germany, has a growing demand for skilled migrants. Consequently, Germany has been considering lowering language and other requirements to facilitate the entry of skilled workers. The World Bank's recent focus has been on aligning the skills of migrant workers with available job opportunities, aiming to create mutually beneficial outcomes for both the migrants and their host countries.
Remittance remains one of the important components of the national income for many countries in the developing world. The top five recipient countries in 2022 were India (receiving $111 billion), Mexico ($61bn), China ($51bn), the Philippines ($38bn), and Pakistan ($30bn), according to the World Bank. Bangladesh holds the 7th position with a remittance inflow of $22bn.
China, despite its staggering population of 1.4 billion, is faced with a declining birthrate, posing the threat of a labour shortage. Bangladesh should explore opportunities for its migrant labour force in China, which has traditionally been hesitant to admit migrants. Encouraging middle-class Bangladeshis to consider China as a second home could not only help alleviate labour shortages but also address the issue of unsold properties, potentially averting a crisis like the one faced by Evergrande, a giant $300bn Chinese real estate conglomerate.
My travels to Portugal and France this summer introduced me to Bangladeshi migrants and refugees who were selling fruits near subway stations in Paris, running restaurants, and driving Uber cars in Lisbon. One Bangladeshi had left Sweden for Portugal after a fruitless job search. I bought a beach towel on a beach far away from Lisbon and surprised my daughter when I spoke to the seller and bargained a bit in Bangla. From his smart look, sunglasses, and in his reverse baseball cap, I knew he was a Bangladeshi.
Intra-European migration among Bangladeshis is on the rise, with some making their way through Eastern European countries, such as Romania, or entering Europe through Greece and Italy before heading to more prosperous destinations like Germany and, increasingly, Portugal. This second-hand migration trend is becoming more common.
Without immigration, many high-income countries would experience population declines. Fertility rates in regions like the European Union, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. As these countries continue to age, they will rely on migrants to stimulate their economies and provide care for their increasingly elderly populations.
The global population currently at 8 billion is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. The uneven distribution of declining fertility rates and economic development will ensure that migration remains a prominent feature of our world. Whether or not Migrationstan becomes a reality, the future promises a more multicultural and multi-ethnic world, where the spirit of Migrationstan will find a home.
Habibul Haque Khondker is a sociology professor at Zayed University, Abu Dhabi who previously taught at the National University of Singapore.
