The unofficial G2 (China and the US) are attending ASEAN, which is itself the southern half of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) -- the one that is ASEAN + China, Japan, and South Korea.
The overlap between all these organizations might suggest we have reached Peak International Organization Summits. The overlap is insane. Is it time to cull the weaker and less useful ones?
The G20 is basically the G7 (West + Japan) plus the Rest. It was formed a generation ago, in the very different world of the late 1990s. An era when the West wanted to corral the Rest into following the Rules of the Globalized World Economy. If you recall, while the US was the untouchable hyperpower, the Rest were being battered. There were a series of debt crises: Mexico in 1994, Russia in 1998, and Southeast Asia and South Korea in 1997-98 -- what was termed the Asian Financial Crisis
The G20 was meant to be a medium through which these financial tantrums would be tamed. China then was busy reforming its state sector while ramping up private sector factories, exporting cheap stuff for Western consumers.
Today, that world is dying. Asian countries to the east, have built up war chests of foreign currencies. They are far richer and more industrially mature than those days. China is the largest economy of all, measured by PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). India is rising, given its massive population. Middle powers are flexing their economic and geopolitical muscles.
The G20 is basically like an unwieldy United Nations. The European Union, the African Union, ASEAN and, oddly perhaps, Spain receive regular invites. So do the IMF, World Bank, and ILO. The OECD too -- which has acted as back office for the G20. The club is bursting at the seams.
When Americanization (AKA globalization) was the unquestioned religion, it was relatively simple. It got trickier when the leaders had to meet in the aftermath of the Western Financial Crisis of 2007-08. Nevertheless, money printing kept the balls up in the air. China reflated the commodity economies of Latin America and Africa by building high speed rail and new cities.
The G20 then got ahead of itself by wading into geopolitics. It cannot agree on the war in Ukraine for example. Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, landing from Dhaka, has emailed his formula for an agreed joint statement. Wordsmiths will be busy.
If only the G20 would stick to its main, original brief: Managing debt problems. In Delhi, it will not agree to writing off vast amounts of debt in the Global South. By the way, the world’s largest debtor today is the United States of America.
It’s a lot about the elections
As host, Delhi has gone all touchy feely. Its motto: One Earth, One Family, One Future.
The emperor will welcome the other kings and the emperor from the West into his palace. The distinguished guests know they have to announce the glory that is the Indian economy. In this fable, it will catch up to a "faltering China" and even overtake the US later this century. This is something like a coronation or re-affirmation of vows. I wonder if the leaders are all going to perform televised Yoga on the grounds of post-Lutyens Delhi. Yet like Britain’s castaway commonwealth, the G20 is already looking dated.
Modi is running for election in 2024. The campaign has already begun. After the loss of Karnataka state and the opposition formation of "INDIA" (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) the 73 year old will promote his "wisdom" and patriarchal leadership. The helmsman is now a Heavyweight World Leader. Nehru and Netaji on steroids for the 21st century.
Bangladesh, the country, is not in the G20, since it is still stuck in the lower leagues, though climbing steadily up the table. Nevertheless, it will be present, in the form of its prime minister meeting her equivalent in Delhi. It is thus an electoral meet for Dhaka too.
The missing
Indonesia is miffed that Biden skipped ASEAN for Delhi’s G20. However, the big story so far has been the non-appearance of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to the G20.
Those who see the world through the eyes of Western media may have forgotten about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It was India’s turn to host the SCO earlier this year. For some reason, Delhi decided to host it online, preferring distant digital to analogue in the flesh. In the minds of Delhi’s South Block, they thought they were sending a message: the SCO is just another group, which India does not see as that vital or important. That is one monumental mistake.
The SCO may be downplayed by the world of the G7 but it is the proverbial elephant in the room. The name makes no secret of the fact that it is led by China. It includes the big powers of Mainland Asia (China, Russia, and India), plus Iran and Pakistan, among others.
It was formed initially in 2001 to focus on eradicating Islamic terrorism -- the year the US invaded Afghanistan. It now can provide a broader security framework for Asia. On top, it is a template connected to RCEP, the Russian-led EAEU, and the infrastructure of the Belt and Road Initiative. All the big hitters. Modi himself had called for a boost to trade, connectivity, and tech cooperation. So why go virtual then?
By soft-pedalling on the SCO and BRICS+, India is sliding down the table of influencers. This weekend you will hear the complete opposite, naturally. This weekend, Indian corporate media is promoting Brand Bharat and Modi As rock star legends.
Yet, when the circus leaves town, you might want to consider two things: First, should the G20 be downgraded to a technical format of ministers (no leaders) meeting on economics and then discontinued, and second, does Delhi believe its own hype?
In other news: in January, Moscow hosts the BRICS11 meeting, which might even become BRICS20 by this time next year. G20? Delhi? Modi? They may soon become yesterday's news.
