When the latest survey on Bangladesh by the Washington-based International Republican Institute (IRI) was released on Tuesday, many of my friends and colleagues in the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) expressed dismay and shock at the very high approval rating of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
But to those who follow Bangladeshi politics closely, the 70% approval rating (ie those who think the prime minister is doing a "very good" or "somewhat good" job) did not come as a surprise. Here’s why (in my opinion):
First, previous nationwide surveys by the IRI consistently saw similarly high approval ratings for PM Hasina. She polled at 83% in April 2017, and 66% in May 2018. So, the 70% figure did not appear as a bolt from the blue. Similar positive impressions have consistently been found in surveys and analysis by other credible international organizations like the Washington-based Democracy International and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EUI).
Second, some indication for the high approval rating is found in the survey itself. 87% respondents expressed satisfaction with the Sheikh Hasina government’s performance in development of roads, bridges, and highways. The survey revealed 84% satisfaction with the electricity situation, 81% satisfaction with the education sector, 77% satisfaction with healthcare, and so on. Additionally, those who opined that the country is headed in the right direction, basically referred to development advances (50%), economic progress (30%), and security situation (9%) as the main reasons for their views.
Third, while Bangladesh remains a Westminster-style parliamentary democracy, personality remains the dominant factor among the electorate. The campaigning techniques, especially in the last decade or so, have been similar to presidential systems. As a result, Sheikh Hasina has become the face of development. For better or worse, the word “development” is almost automatically associated with her.
Fourth, while the survey did not explicitly cover the issue of the pandemic, the prime minister experienced a surge of goodwill as a result of her visible "leading from the front"-style during the tough days of Covid-19. Many believe, and with good reasons, that had it not been for the prime minister’s leadership, both on the public health as well as the economic fronts, things could have been much worse for Bangladesh. In particular, the massive free vaccination campaign, as well as timely disbursement of various types of special allowances and financial incentives, received a lot of positive feedback, both nationally and internationally.
Fifth, by way of comparison, the lack of a better alternative on the opposition side also helps Sheikh Hasina, albeit indirectly. Khaleda Zia, even in her heyday, could not match Hasina’s hands-on approach to politics, relying more on her senior party leaders. Now, an embattled, aged, ill, and convicted Begum Zia is not even in the contention for a challenge to Hasina. In her absence, Tarique Rahman’s absentee leadership (as well as his past records) do not inspire much confidence.
Sixth, the prime minister’s leadership on the international stage on issues like climate change, being a strong voice for the aspirations of the countries of the Global South, and her deft balancing of power players like India, China, US, Japan, and Russia, have earned her a previously untapped dimension of popularity. As no other head of government in Bangladesh after Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has had a more visible presence on the global stage. Her strong reactions to diplomatic arm-twisting on democracy and human rights issues has, unbeknownst to many, evoked a strong sense of nationalism.
There are those who have pointed out that the survey’s results are contradictory, in that while the prime minister received 70% approval rating, 53% also think that the country is headed in the wrong direction (and only 44% think that the country is headed in the right direction). I would argue that, rather than being contradictory, this apparent mismatch actually helps to understand both figures better.
The main reason given for thinking that the country is headed in the wrong direction is the price hike of essentials (50%). Apart from corruption (13%), no other factor received double-digit mentions. Inflation, especially of food items, has been a persistent problem for a prolonged period of time, undoubtedly. But this did not necessarily eat away at the prime minister’s approval ratings. Why? In my opinion, two factors have been at play here:
Firstly, the prime minister, and to some extent her government and party, have been able to communicate successfully a key message to the electorate in their core communications- that the ongoing economic issues, including inflation, have been caused "largely" (not wholly) by events outside their control. In particular, the impacts of the pandemic and the ongoing Ukraine conflict have been made abundantly clear with consistent messaging.
Secondly, as stated above, the leadership comparison inevitably comes into play. To the electorate, there is really no tested leader other than Sheikh Hasina, who can skillfully navigate the complicated global and domestic economic challenges and steer the country in the right direction.
While the approval rating of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina remains high, this should not result in complacency from her party or government. To some extent, the people of Bangladesh have given her the benefit of the doubt. But that cannot be expected to continue indefinitely. Visible steps for curbing corruption and bringing down prices of essentials are the most important tasks at hand, especially in the run up to the next election.
Shah Ali Farhad is a lawyer, policy-researcher, and political activist. He is the founder of The Confluence, a specialist political blog. He can be reached via Twitter (@shah_farhad).
